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Original headline: Bank of Canada Macklem warns global resilience under strain
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- Inflation risks are rising as oil shock lingers, Macklem says
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said inflation risks are rising as high energy prices persist, with the conflict ongoing, shipments curtailed and refinery capacity damaged. Inflation has been above the bank's two per cent target since May and was at three per cent in July and August, and economists largely expect it to edge up again in September as Brent and WTI crude hover around US$100 per barrel. A higher reading could increase pressure on the bank to raise its overnight rate, currently at 2.25 per cent, for the first time in a year. Macklem said the bank has so far looked through the direct impact of oil prices but is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
The Bank of Canada's business outlook survey found average business sentiment improved in the third quarter, though firms remained worried about rising costs and the war in the Middle East. About three-quarters of the interviews, however, took place before trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down at the end of August and Canada announced new counter-tariffs. Afterward, firms pointed to new U.S. tariffs on some goods and Canadian counter-tariffs as weighing on their outlooks, and the bank said tariffs are dampening sentiment, weakening export and investment prospects, and pushing up costs and prices. A separate consumer survey found long-term inflation expectations rose to match short-term ones, and consumers reported better financial health than last quarter, though high prices and economic uncertainty still weigh on them. The bank's next rate decision and monetary policy report are due Oct. 28.
- Canadian firm outlooks dimmed after trade talks collapse, BoC survey finds
The Bank of Canada said a September survey of about 340 business leaders found outlooks had worsened since trade talks with the United States collapsed on August 21, as new US tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs weighed on sentiment. Sentiment remains considerably stronger than at the peak of trade tensions in 2025, the bank said, pointing to a moderation rather than a fundamental shift. A third-quarter survey, largely conducted before the talks collapsed, showed overall sentiment improved, and both surveys pointed to higher inflation expectations. Money markets price a hold on October 28 but a 25 basis point rise in December.
- Inflation data shows high energy prices still contained , for now : economists
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.1 per cent in September as gasoline prices jumped 27.8 per cent amid the Middle East war, but came in slightly below the 3.2 per cent economists had expected. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.2 per cent, after 2.4 per cent in August. Core measures, CPI-trim at 1.8 per cent and CPI-median at 1.9 per cent, suggest underlying price pressures remain relatively contained and higher energy costs have yet to spread widely. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned the bank was prepared to raise rates if necessary, while CIBC's Andrew Grantham said the data suggests policymakers have little rush to do so. Regional gaps were wide, with Ontario lowest at 2.5 per cent and all three Maritime provinces well above the national rate as heating oil prices surged.
- Businesses expect Canada inflation rate to remain above 3 %
The Bank of Canada's quarterly Business Outlook Survey, released Monday, shows many businesses expect Canada's inflation rate to stay above 3% over the next two years, and about half plan to pass on some or all cost increases linked to the Iran war and tariffs. Inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September from 3% in August, mainly due to higher energy prices. In the companion Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, households' median expectations were 4.03% for the next year and 3.88% for the next two years, with tariffs cited as the top factor. Firms' outlooks worsened and inflation expectations rose after trade talks with the U.S. broke down on Aug. 22, but they are not expected to return to levels seen at the start of the trade conflict in March 2025 or the April oil-price peak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on Oct. 28, and these surveys are among the inputs for that decision.
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Latest news
- Bank Profits Surge
The 9-month 2026 results show many banks continued to grow profits, with some posting record quarterly earnings. VPBank's pre-tax profit reached nearly VND 30,000 billion, up nearly 47%, equal to its full-year 2025 result and about 72.4% of its 2026 plan; Q3 pre-tax profit topped VND 11,000 billion. Techcombank posted VND 28,900 billion (up 23.7%), while LPBank reported VND 10,421 billion (up nearly 9%). SSI forecasts pre-tax profit of its monitored banks to rise 19.5% in 2026 before slowing to 15.4% in 2027, pressured by narrowing net interest margins and rising credit risk provisions. It also expects system-wide credit growth of 16-17% in 2027 and 17.9% for the monitored banks.
- World's Largest Gold Fund Dumps Over 10 Tonnes of Gold as Prices Slide
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, continued net selling of nearly 12 tonnes of gold in the 22/10 session, bringing total sales over 2 sessions to nearly 15 tonnes and cutting its holdings to about 1,046 tonnes. Spot gold fell more than 2.8% to around USD 4,025 per ounce at the close of 22/10, and briefly dipped below USD 4,000 per ounce in the morning session of 23/10. Tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and further Fed tightening, and gold has still not attracted sustained safe-haven demand even as US Treasury yields fell. US September CPI rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, while PPI rose 1.3% and 6.3%. Markets price about an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its 27-28/10 meeting and a 16% chance of a 25 basis-point increase; September PCE data due on 29/10 is the next key factor to watch.
- Gold Prices Continue to Fall
On the morning of 23/10, domestic gold prices kept falling, with SJC bar prices varying by seller and the premium over world gold widening. Công ty TNHH Vàng bạc đá quý Sài Gòn listed SJC bars at VND 139-142 million per tael (buy-sell), down VND 300,000; Phú Quý was at VND 138-141.8 million, down VND 500,000; and Mi Hồng at VND 140-141.5 million, down VND 800,000. Gold rings also fell by varying amounts, with DOJI at VND 138-142 million and Phú Quý at VND 138-141 million per tael. World gold dropped USD 129 to around USD 3,992 per ounce, equal to about VND 125.3 million per tael, leaving SJC bars about VND 16.7 million per tael above the world price. The State Bank's central rate was set at 25,627 VND/USD, down 5 dong, while Vietcombank quoted 25,660-26,040 VND/USD (buy-sell).
- Company Linked to Billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong Announces Major Good News
VEFAC (ticker VEF), a Vingroup subsidiary, posted Q3 net revenue of nearly VND 77 billion, up 67% year on year, but a gross loss of about VND 27 billion as cost of sales from its exhibition business exceeded revenue. Q3 profit rose mainly thanks to a gross gain of about VND 65 billion from transferring some schools in a project to a partner, while financial income reached over VND 388 billion, mostly from loan and investment income. For the first nine months of 2026, after-tax profit was nearly VND 865 billion, down about 94% from VND 15,418 billion in the same period of 2025, as the prior year included large gains from transferring part of the Vinhomes Global Gate project. As of 30/9/2026, total assets stood at over VND 31,905 billion, up 36% from the start of the year, while total liabilities exceeded VND 24,364 billion, with short-term customer advances rising from VND 411 billion to over VND 8,373 billion.
- Lotte and Phat Dat Officially Break Ground on VND 60,000 Billion Mega Project in Thu Thiem 'Golden Land'
A joint venture between Lotte Group (South Korea) and Phát Đạt (HoSE: PDR) officially broke ground on 23/10 on Lotte Eco Smart City Thu Thiem in the Thu Thiem New Urban Area, HCMC, with total investment of about VND 60,000 billion. The project covers nearly 7.5 ha and will combine Grade A offices, retail, services, accommodation and housing, adjoining the central plaza and central lake of Thu Thiem. Phát Đạt holds 35% of Lotte Properties HCMC, the project developer, and will develop the housing blocks along with two towers (2-1 and 2-3) with about 219,722 m2 of floor area, while Lotte handles block 2-5. Lotte Properties HCMC paid VND 17,569 billion in land-use fees on 31/7/2026, and Phát Đạt completed its VND 7,666 billion payment to take its 35% stake. MB is funding all of Phát Đạt's capital contribution, while VietinBank and BIDV also support the project.
- International Business : Global stocks nosedive as Meta dents AI optimism
Global stocks retreated as tech earnings failed to ease concerns about the AI outlook, with MSCI's All-World index set for its largest daily fall in two weeks, down 0.4 per cent. Meta beat third-quarter revenue expectations, but its plan to issue non-voting stock revived worries about its mounting capital commitments, and a New Mexico judge ordered it to pay a $25 billion penalty in a data privacy case. Brent crude rose nearly 3% to $112 a barrel, near a five-month high, after more Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised supply risks. Investors moved into government bonds, pushing the US 10-year yield down to 5.05%, below France's for the first time in 13 years, while French yields have climbed above 5% amid concerns over social unrest and debt. The France-Germany 10-year spread reached 177.7 basis points, its widest since 2011, while gold fell 1.8% to $4,070 an ounce.
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