The article argues that Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation, the highest-profile U.S. eVTOL players, are unlikely to achieve profitability in the consumer market over the next five years and may not reach positive gross margins in that category by the end of 2030. It uses Lucid as an illustration: although its production, deliveries and revenue rose, first-half cost of goods sold climbed to $1.43 billion from $995.3 million, and its gross margin was -112.6%, worse than -101.3% a year earlier. Joby targets four aircraft per month in 2027 and a long-term output of 500 a year, while Archer expects to produce 650 aircraft a year by 2030 but has stopped providing production updates. Neither company has FAA type certification for its flagship commercial aircraft, and the optimistic case depends on replicating Tesla's shift to positive gross margins after the Model S launch in 2012.
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