EUR/USD recovered above 1.1200 after hitting 17-month lows below 1.1120, but high energy prices and French fiscal concerns still weigh on the euro. Société Générale forecasts a drop to 1.10 before a recovery to 1.16 in the third quarter of next year, though it argues much of the bad news may already be priced in. US headline inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, above the 3.6% consensus, and core inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4%, leading markets to expect no rate hike in October while traders still expect a Fed hike in December. ING expects EUR/USD to stay in a 1.10-1.15 range with a firm dollar, with the main upside risk coming from White House policy after the November midterm elections.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on currencynews.co.uk ↗
Keywords
EURUSDDXYexchange rateseuroFedinflation
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 1.12393 |
| Change that session | +0.16% |
DXY
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 101.78 |
| Change that session | -0.20% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Fade, DXY Tests 102.18 as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Slip
The dollar softened as bets on an October Fed hike faded: Deutsche Bank strategists put the probability of a hike next month at about 15%, down from 30%, while CME FedWatch shows roughly an 84% chance the Fed holds at its October 27-28 meeting. Still, traders price about a 92% chance of a December hike. The euro is weighed down by political and fiscal worries in France, while sterling is holding up ahead of UK inflation data on October 21st and the Autumn budget on October 28, which will test the case for a Bank of England hike in November. The DXY is trading around 102.01, testing 102.18 resistance with 101.77 support below.
- EUR / USD seems to be forming a bottom as growth concerns and France budget vote come into focus
- EUR / USD Rebound Faces a Reality Check at Resistance
- UBS sees EUR/USD recovering as markets turn too pessimistic on Europe
UBS expects the euro to recover to $1.16 by the end of 2026, arguing its slide from $1.17 to nearly $1.11 has gone further than Europe's economy justifies. Its strategists say markets have become "excessively pessimistic" on Europe, citing strong U.S. data, concerns over a possible U.S. diesel export ban, rising global bond yields and worries about France's finances. UBS does not expect a broader European debt crisis and says a French budget deal, possibly via Article 49.3, would help narrow French bond spreads. With markets having almost fully priced out a U.S. rate hike in October, UBS sees a sustained drop below $1.10 as increasingly unlikely. Further strong U.S. data, a material European slowdown or escalating French fiscal concerns could push the euro lower.
- ECB may raise rates by 50 bps by mid - 2027 as energy prices fuel inflation : Report
- ECB may raise rates by 50 bps by mid - 2027 as energy prices fuel inflation : Report
Related markets
Latest news
- Why Meta's Q3 earnings could be a little hard to interpret
Meta is reporting its third-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, and Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi says the report will be hard to interpret. Recent good news on Meta's AI products, including new models and an AI agent, may not appear directly in the results but will likely be discussed on the earnings call. The key uncertainty is how investors will react if Meta raises its capex outlook again: it could be seen as fueling those products, or as overspending on offerings not yet reflected in financials. Sozzi expects the market to give Meta the benefit of the doubt on higher capex, as long as the increase does not shock investors.
- Zerohash rolls out a new tool to move crypto without copying wallet addresses
Zerohash launched AUTH, a service that lets users move crypto, stablecoins and blockchain-based stock tokens between linked exchange accounts or self-custody wallets without copying wallet addresses or choosing a blockchain network. To transfer, users pick an account in an app that offers AUTH, sign in and approve the move, while the service handles routing and settlement and each app sets which assets and transfer types it allows. AUTH supports more than 600 connections, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, MetaMask and Phantom, with Coinbase, Robinhood and Gemini live and Kraken in beta. The launch comes as Zerohash's application for a national trust bank charter, returned by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in July, remains pending after a narrower refiling on Aug. 18.
- 2 charts show why Wall Street is right to worry about tech stocks
Rising cost of capital could affect the financial statements of hyperscalers such as Oracle (ORCL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) in 2027, as they need fresh debt to fund AI infrastructure and free cash flow may turn negative. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka forecasts hyperscaler free cash flow will turn negative in 2027, implying credit markets will drive more of the AI build-out. Consensus estimates for 2027 capital expenditures are already rising from levels experts believe are too low. Morgan Stanley sees total 2027 capex among hyperscalers reaching $1.6 trillion, up from $978 billion estimated for this year. Dan Ives of Yorkville expects capex to reach the trillions and over 1,000 datacenters to be built in the next few years.
- Update on loan rate cuts as of the evening of Oct 19: MB, VietinBank, SHB, OCB join in
SHB, MB, VietinBank and OCB have announced loan rate cuts, following Agribank, Vietcombank, BIDV, ACB, LPBank and VietBank, with typical reductions of 1.5-2% per year. MB is cutting 1.5% per year for five priority sectors, to rates from 7.9% per year, and up to 2% in some cases; VietinBank is cutting up to 2% per year, while OCB offers up to 2.25% per year on some medium- and long-term loans for OCB Priority Banking members. SHB is cutting 1.5-2% per year for businesses and households and offers rates from 5.5% per year for lecturers and students at some universities. Vietcombank commits to cutting at least 2% through year-end, BIDV applies rates from 6% per year on short-term VND loans from 15/10/2026, and VietBank runs a VND 3,000 billion package. Specific benefits depend on borrower type, loan purpose, term and program conditions, following directives from the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam.
- Nvidia wins CPU business from Modal, previously exclusive to AMD and Intel
Modal, a San Francisco-based AI cloud startup that previously ran its AI agent workloads only on Intel and AMD processors, will begin using Nvidia's new Vera CPU. Early tests showed the Nvidia chip doubled work capacity for AI agents, and Modal plans to run it alongside Intel and AMD chips, assigning each task to the most efficient hardware, though integration requires substantial software changes. Modal recently raised $750 million in a round led by Accel at a $15.75 billion valuation and expects $1 billion in sales over the next year, with usage tripled and revenue up more than 15 times year-over-year. Nvidia projects at least $20 billion in Vera chip revenue this fiscal year in a market it estimates at about $200 billion, and says OpenAI, Anthropic, Oracle and Perplexity also plan to use the chips.
- America's EV Plans Have Died
Billions of dollars went into EV factories, dealerships and marketing after President Biden set a goal for 50% of new US car sales to be zero-emission by 2030, but EV sales have since fallen sharply. US EV sales dropped 30.7% in the first nine months of 2026, after the $7,500 tax credit expired on September 30 last year, and gas prices near $4.50 per gallon have done little to lift them. According to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price of a new EV was $54,754 in August, above the $50,089 average for all new cars. Ford's EV sales fell 80.2% to 6,047 in the third quarter, and it has no new EV planned until its Fathom launches next year, while Tesla holds over 50% of the market and no other major automaker has even 10%. The article says EVs could recover if gas prices reach $5 and stay there for months, but that is uncertain.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.