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China and Russia are redrawing Arctic trade. Can Europe fight back?

China and Russia have agreed to expand freight traffic along Arctic shipping corridors, boost port-to-port services and deepen cooperation on building polar vessels, shortly after the EU unveiled a new Arctic strategy to counter their growing influence. Analysts say Europe's ability to challenge the partnership is limited, since Moscow controls the Northern Sea Route and Beijing supplies cargo, vessels and industrial capacity. The route could cut Asia–Europe transit to 18 to 22 days, about 35% less than the 28 to 35 days via Suez. Arctic trade still accounts for roughly 0.3% of global shipping, with 37.02 million tonnes transiting the Northern Sea Route in 2025, and Roche estimates it could reach about 1% by 2030. Experts say the EU's leverage lies in expanding icebreaker capacity and maritime surveillance, but that this is not enough to reverse the structural advantages of Moscow and Beijing.

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