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China GDP beats forecasts as export boom offsets weak demand

China's GDP grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating economists' forecast of 4.4% and rebounding from three-year lows, with growth of 4.6% in the first nine months. Exports rose by more than a third, offsetting weak retail sales, which grew 1.1% in September, and a property downturn, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September. Analysts expect China to meet its 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% without additional stimulus, and the country is on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion trade surplus. Economists warn that reliance on exports and weak domestic demand leave the economy exposed, and the yuan strengthened to its highest level since July 2022 after the data.

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