China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, as a surge in exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property slump. Growth for the first nine months was 4.6%, and analysts expect China to meet its 2026 target of 4.5% to 5.0% without additional stimulus. Industrial output rose 5.5% in September and retail sales 1.1%, their fastest in six months but from a low base, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September and unemployment eased to 5.2%. Exports rose by more than a third and the trade surplus is on track to top last year's US$1.2 trillion, but economists warn of reliance on overseas demand and trade-related risks. The yuan strengthened to its highest level since July 2022.
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- China GDP beats forecasts as export boom offsets weak demand
China's GDP grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating the 4.4% forecast and rebounding from multi-year lows, while growth reached 4.6% over the first nine months. Booming exports, which rose by more than a third, offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn, putting China on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion trade surplus. September retail sales rose 1.1% and industrial output 5.5%, but fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–September and unemployment eased to 5.2%. Analysts expect China to meet its 4.5%–5.0% 2026 target without extra stimulus, though ANZ and Societe Generale warned of trade tensions and reliance on exports. The yuan rose to its strongest level since July 2022 after the data.
- China GDP beats forecasts as export boom offsets weak demand
China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5 percent, beating the 4.4 percent forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, while the first nine months expanded 4.6 percent. Booming exports, which rose by more than a third, offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn, with retail sales up 1.1 percent in September and fixed-asset investment down 7.2 percent in January-September. Analysts expect China to meet its 2026 growth target of 4.5 to 5.0 percent without extra stimulus, and its trade surplus is on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion. Economists warned that dependence on exports and weak domestic demand remain concerns, with Societe Generale's Michelle Lam saying a shift toward household incomes and consumption is needed. The yuan strengthened to its highest since July 2022 after the data.
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