The article compares Shopify with Amazon in 2007, noting that Shopify's trailing 12-month revenue of about $13.3 billion is close to Amazon's $14.8 billion that year, and its GMV rose 32% to about $116 billion in Q2 2026. Trailing free cash flow is about $2.4 billion, a margin of around 18%, versus about 8% for Amazon in 2007, because Shopify mainly earns software fees and payment processing rather than selling products directly. However, its market value of about $218 billion equals roughly 92 times trailing free cash flow, compared with about 33 times for Amazon in 2007. The author sees Shopify as a potential long-term compounder, but believes much of that growth may already be priced in at today's level, so the author would not buy shares at this price.
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