The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for home sales and average home prices. Fixed mortgage rates rose sharply again as oil prices climbed in early September and the Bank of Canada took a more hawkish tone, with markets pricing in about 100 basis points of rate hikes within a year. Home sales fell in September, and CREA now expects 444,530 residential properties to trade in 2026, down 5.2% from 2025, with downward revisions in all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador. The national average price is forecast to rise 0.2% to $681,681 in 2026, as declines of 3% in Ontario and 0.8% in British Columbia offset gains elsewhere. In 2027, sales are forecast to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units and the average price to rise 1.2% to $689,909.
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- CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast
CREA has updated its forecasts, now expecting 444,530 residential properties to change hands via MLS systems in 2026, a 5.2% drop from 2025. The downgrade reflects higher fixed mortgage rates after the Iran conflict and uncertainty over variable rates, and it applies to every province except Newfoundland and Labrador. The national average home price is forecast to rise 0.2% to $681,681 in 2026, with declines of 0.8% in British Columbia and 3% in Ontario offset by gains elsewhere. For 2027, sales are projected to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units and the average price to reach $689,909, up 1.2%, based on the assumption of limited Bank of Canada action over the next year.
- CREA revises down 2026 home sales forecast again as September transactions fall 7 . 7 % over same month last year
- CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year
- CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year – Winnipeg Free Press
CREA has downgraded its 2026 home sales forecast for the third straight quarter, now expecting 444,530 sales this year, down 5.2% from 2025, compared with a July forecast of a 1.4% decline. The national average home price is projected to rise 0.2% to $681,681, about $5,000 lower than predicted in the summer. In September, national home sales fell 7.7% year over year and 2.3% from August, the national average sale price dropped 1.6% to $666,538, and CREA's home price index declined 3.4% year over year. Senior economist Shaun Cathcart said many markets stepped back after four months of modest progress, following a jump in fixed mortgage rates and widespread expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike before year-end.
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