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- Small businesses are set to capture a record $118 billion this holiday season
- Small businesses are set to capture a record $118 billion this holiday season
- Small businesses are set to capture a record $118 billion this holiday season
- Small businesses are set to capture a record $118 billion this holiday season
- As fuel prices jump , the cost to ship lettuce now tops the lettuce itself for one grocery chain
The latest fuel price spike is harder to bear than earlier this year, as businesses and consumers have less room to absorb it, and inflation is spreading beyond energy. Average diesel hit $6.30 a gallon on Wednesday, up about 68% from before the Iran war, according to AAA. Core CPI rose to 2.6% in September from 2.4% in August, while retail sales excluding gas stations rose just 0.2%. The Fed's Beige Book reported more fuel surcharges, squeezed margins and consumers pulling back on spending. A regional grocery chain said it now pays more to ship a head of lettuce from California than the lettuce itself, as diesel rose 30% from last year.
- Netflix's Regions Abroad Are All Growing Faster Than Its Home Market. I Don't Think That Makes the Stock a Bargain.
Netflix already earns most of its revenue outside its home market, yet in Q2 2026 U.S. and Canada revenue, about 43% of the $12.6 billion total, grew only 10% year over year, the slowest of its four regions. Growth abroad was faster: EMEA rose 14%, Latin America 21% and Asia-Pacific 16%, a gap that opened as home-region growth fell from 18% in Q4 2025, largely tied to the timing of price increases, which the author suggests could pick up in the second half. However, excluding currency effects, all three regions abroad have slowed this year, with EMEA growing just 11%, barely above the home region's 10%. Members abroad also pay less: in 2024, the average U.S. and Canada membership brought in $17.20 a month, versus $10.96 in EMEA, $8.24 in Latin America and $7.29 in Asia-Pacific. Netflix forecasts third-quarter revenue growth of 12%, slowing further, so the author concludes that faster growth abroad is unlikely to offset the home market, and at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 19, the stock doesn't look like a bargain.
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Nvidia is the market's most valuable company, with a market cap above $5 trillion. It trades at 27 times adjusted trailing earnings, but only about 8 times analysts' estimate for fiscal 2030 earnings, a figure the author stresses is a moving target. Revenue growth accelerated from 56% in Q2 FY 2026 to 106% in Q2 FY 2027, though guidance points to a slight slowdown in the current quarter. The stock trades at 13 times next year's earnings, and the board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases. The author also acknowledges risks such as slower growth or contracting net margins.
- US Orders Civilian Agencies to Rip DeepSeek Out of Government Systems
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and third-party services built on the model from their IT systems, and to stop buying them. The notice warns that using DeepSeek may transfer sensitive data to China and could produce intelligence on U.S. persons and agencies. The Commerce Department, the Navy, and the states of New York, Tennessee and Virginia had already restricted DeepSeek. The FCC votes on October 29 on barring Chinese labs from testing electronics for U.S. use.
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Chip stocks fell sharply last week, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped nearly 2% as investors worried that heavily indebted AI companies would face higher borrowing costs after bond yields jumped for CoreWeave, a cloud company Nvidia backs. CoreWeave shares had fallen more than 15% the day before. Nvidia's own numbers show no sign of that stress: it sold $96.2 billion of chips and systems in the quarter ended July, up 106% from a year earlier, mostly from data center sales. Its net profit margin was 63.66% over the past 12 months, and management expects $108.0 billion in revenue next quarter, assuming no data center sales to China. The key risk is whether customers can keep paying for chips if interest rates stay high, and the planned partnerships to bring over $500 billion of outside capital into AI infrastructure have not yet become definitive agreements.
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- Gartner Predicts “80% of Neoclouds” Out of Business by 2030: Here’s Who Wins
Gartner forecast on October 14 that more than 80% of neoclouds will stop operating independently by 2030, and CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 25% last week. The article argues that hyperscalers funding AI capacity from their own cash flow, led by Amazon and Alphabet, are likely winners as credit tightens for indebted neoclouds. Amazon generated $140 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2025, more than covering $132 billion of capex, while CoreWeave's total debt reached $29.8 billion. Since their July 29 closing low, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are up 15.6%, compared with 1.6% for IREN, CoreWeave and Nebius. Hyperscaler earnings in the coming weeks will need to show whether sold-out capacity is turning into results.
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