Gary Black predicts SpaceX will announce an all-stock deal to buy Tesla at $420 per share within the next few weeks, about 18% above Tesla's $354.72 close on Oct. 16. He believes the Roadster event was meant to build the case for a merger, though the deal could take a year to close. The article notes Tesla trades at 182x forward earnings, and even on analysts' 2028 EPS estimate of $3.21, $420 would be roughly 131x. Because the offer is paid in stock, its value would move with SpaceX's shares, and SpaceX revenue is expected to rise from $45.3 billion in 2026 to $201 billion in 2028. Neither company has announced a deal, and Tesla's third-quarter results on Wednesday are the next item to watch.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
TSLASpaceXmergers and acquisitionsElon Musk
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
TSLA
▲ Likely positiveTesla, Inc.
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Automobile Manufacturers |
| Market cap | $1.4T |
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 354.67 |
| Change that session | -2.14% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Tesla-SpaceX merger is 'not so easy': Analyst
Speculation about a possible merger between SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) has grown on Wall Street in recent weeks. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says it would not be simple: SpaceX would have to acquire Tesla, likely in an all-stock deal, and would need to pay a strong premium. He sets a $480 price target for Tesla, while the shares trade near $367. The longer-term focus may be Terafab, Elon Musk's chip initiative aimed at cutting production costs by up to 90% and bypassing Nvidia and TSMC. Musk currently controls 85% of SpaceX's voting rights and 20% of Tesla's.
- SpaceX Could Buy Tesla for $480 Per Share in $3.74 Trillion Merger, RBC Says
According to RBC Capital Markets, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) could acquire Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) for $480 per share, creating a combined company worth $3.74 trillion. Tesla shareholders would hold just 48% of the merged business, down from 54% in the bank's July estimate.
- Tesla-SpaceX Merger Mania Strikes Wall Street Ahead of Earnings
- TSLA, SPCX Eye Green Open: Gary Black Predicts $420 SpaceX Buyout Of Tesla — Sees Announcement In 'Next Few Weeks'
Gary Black of Future Fund predicts SpaceX could announce within weeks an all-stock acquisition of Tesla at $420 per share, framing the Roadster reveal as a step toward combining Elon Musk's companies. Black estimates the Roadster could add just $0.06 a share to Tesla's 2029 earnings, or 1.1% of the $5.40 consensus adjusted forecast, and sees limited brand benefit, while noting TSLA tends to sell off after its events. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management also sees a merger motive behind the showcase, while Morningstar expects the Roadster could draw buyers to Tesla's lineup but forecasts fewer than 2,000 annual deliveries once production ramps. Barclays considers an all-stock SpaceX acquisition of Tesla the most likely structure, with a possible announcement around Tesla's annual meeting or within six to 12 months, though shareholder approvals and antitrust review remain hurdles. Year-to-date, TSLA is down 21% and SPCX is down 9%.
- Flying supercar boosts Tesla-SpaceX merger prospects
On October 15, Tesla unveiled its Roadster sports car in a flight demonstration at a SpaceX test site in Texas, using rocket-inspired thrusters and a system designed to keep the car inverted. The launch strengthened speculation that Tesla and SpaceX, both run by Musk, could merge. Barclays predicted Musk could announce a merger before December, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all-stock deal. The companies already share engineers, AI infrastructure and the Terafab chip project, while SpaceX is valued at $2,000 billion and Tesla at $1,400 billion. SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell said a combination could make Musk's life a little easier by simplifying leadership.
- Tesla–SpaceX merger: What is the Roadster's bigger strategic play?
In the Loop host Ejaaz Ahamadeen argues that the technology behind the “flying” Tesla Roadster shows Elon Musk can combine strengths of Tesla and SpaceX into something new, and that a merger makes sense given synergies such as Tesla battery packs for data centers and humanoid robots that could help SpaceX build and refuel rockets. Rumors suggest an announcement as early as December, with SpaceX acquiring Tesla in an all-stock deal in which Tesla shareholders receive about 0.7 SpaceX shares per Tesla share. Barclays estimates Musk would own about 37% of the combined company with roughly 56% voting power, and the combined valuation would make it the fifth-largest company in the world. The host also notes doubts about mass-market scaling, manufacturing, cost, safety regulation, and the fact that the Roadster is the most delayed product from one of Musk's companies.
Related markets
Latest news
- Nscale in talks for $45 billion Anthropic AI deal as IPO looms
Nscale is in talks to secure a computing deal worth about $45 billion with Anthropic, according to Bloomberg News, which could strengthen the Nvidia-backed data center developer's bid for a roughly $30 billion valuation in its planned IPO. The proposed agreement would cover a second building at Nscale's Monarch campus in West Virginia, delivering 460 megawatts of capacity powered by Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips, and could be finalized within days, though terms could still change. Anthropic already has infrastructure agreements with Nscale worth as much as $44.6 billion, according to Nscale's IPO filing, and holds a right of first refusal on the campus's anticipated third building. Investors are scrutinizing AI infrastructure economics, and Nscale faces questions similar to CoreWeave's about financing, execution and converting its backlog into cash flow, since its contracts are future commitments rather than collected cash. Representatives for Nscale and Anthropic declined to comment.
- Trump says he'd meet with Putin and Xi, criticizes Zelenskyy
President Donald Trump said he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss ending the Ukraine war, and suggested such a meeting could happen without Zelenskyy present. He said Russia and China have done 'very little' to help Tehran, which has been accused of receiving their support in its military efforts against the U.S. Trump also criticized Zelenskyy's reaction to his decision to waive new sanctions against Russia, saying Zelenskyy 'doesn't know what he's talking about' and should have settled the war long ago. He added that 'it's time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine,' echoing his earlier call for Kyiv to get a new president.
- Market participants weigh in on SEC’s proposed crypto regulations
The SEC will close public comment on its “Regulation Crypto Assets” proposal, first introduced in August, on Tuesday. Over the 60-day period, the agency received about 140 comments on a proposed safe harbor that would keep token issuers from being treated as investment contracts, along with exemptions for offerings up to a set amount. The MiCA Crypto Alliance largely supported the proposed disclosure changes but asked the SEC to better define crypto-specific concepts and data structures. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci also backed the rules, calling them a return to the Commission’s proper role, though he did not mention Congress’s inaction on the CLARITY Act. Some legal experts warn the rules could be overturned more easily than an act of Congress, and both the SEC and the CFTC remain understaffed at the leadership level.
- Why Lockheed Martin May Be an Underrated Stock to Buy Right Now
The article argues that Lockheed Martin (LMT) can withstand market volatility, with its stock up about 15% this year while still offering good value. In 2022, when the market fell, LMT’s total return including dividends was over 40%, compared with a negative 18% for the S&P 500, helped by its close ties to the U.S. government and strong defense spending. In the quarter ended June 28, revenue reached $20.1 billion, up 11% year over year. The stock trades at a forward P/E of about 16, below the S&P 500’s more than 19, and its dividend yields 2.6% versus the index’s roughly 1%. The company has raised its dividend for 24 consecutive years, which the article cites as a reason to hold the stock long term.
- Canadian dollar notches nearly four - week high on BoC rate hike bets
The Canadian dollar held most of its gains against the US dollar on Monday, as hawkish remarks from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem drew more attention than domestic inflation data. The loonie traded 0.3% higher at 1.4095 per US dollar, near its strongest intraday level since September 23. Macklem said the BoC expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month because of persistently high oil and petroleum prices. Swap market data showed about an 80% chance of a BoC rate hike on October 28, up from 30% on Friday, while the benchmark rate has stayed at 2.25% since last October. Canadian bond yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year up 11.1 basis points to 3.940%, as investors also awaited a nonbinding Alberta referendum on secession.
- Homebuilder Sentiment Drops To Lowest Level Since 2012
Builder confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 2012, according to the NAHB and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Rising mortgage rates and higher energy and material costs have pushed sentiment to a 14-year low, keeping many buyers on the sidelines. The headline index rose one point to 38, still well below the breakeven level of 50, with affordability cited as a top concern for both buyers and builders. Builders also face elevated land, labor and construction costs, while NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to global events and energy prices as headwinds. He said efforts to ease regulatory burdens could still help improve long-term housing supply.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.