AMD shares are about 15% below their record closing high of $649.42 and above $550 ahead of third-quarter results on Nov. 3. The author estimates the stock will end 2030 between $600 and $750, a return of about 2% to 8% a year, far below the threefold gain over the past 52 weeks. AMD's long-term target is adjusted EPS above $20, while adjusted EPS hit a record $1.66 in the second quarter. The author notes that warrants for 320 million shares issued to OpenAI and Meta could bring per-share earnings down to about $17 if all those shares are counted, so the author assumes EPS of $20 to $25 in 2030 at a P/E of around 30. The author thinks AMD's plan is credible, but today's price already reflects much of the expected growth, so the stock is still worth holding as a small position with single-digit annual returns.
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