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- Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite
The IEA warns that record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and weigh on growth, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia could keep global markets short into next year. In September, the Middle East and Russia lost a combined 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins hit record highs near $95 per barrel in September, while inventories continue to be drawn down. The agency expects the market to return to surplus around 2027, but warns that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail recovery. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels yet to be released.
- IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027
- IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027
- The Diesel Crunch Will Persist Well Into 2027
Even as crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz recover, the global diesel shortage persists because refinery output in the Middle East and Russia remains constrained and other suppliers cannot fully offset the loss. Diesel prices hit records in mid-September, and the G7's promised release of 100 million barrels offers no easy fix. The IEA expects the crunch to extend into mid-2027, as gasoil supply falls short of demand and inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Global diesel exports fell 700,000 bpd in September from a year earlier, and diesel accounts for 25% of the expected 2.6 million bpd drop in global oil demand this year. Diesel prices have eased from September's peak above $200 a barrel but remain nearly double crude prices.
- IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tight diesel supplies could persist well into 2027, as record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Middle East and Russian diesel exports fell by a combined 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5 percent of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins surged to a record of almost $95 per barrel that month as reduced refining capacity cut output. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released, and its governing board meets Thursday to decide details. The agency expects a surplus to return in 2027 but warned that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail the recovery.
- IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027
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