IMF Fiscal Affairs Department director Rodrigo Valdes says governments in almost all economies face pressing fiscal challenges from high debt, higher interest rates and rising spending demands. The IMF's Fiscal Monitor projects global public debt to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030, and new IMF research finds that rising policy rates worsen deficits and debt when debt is already high. Pressures include defense spending in Europe and the U.S., population aging, and climate-related investment needs. Governments have provided oil subsidies or tax cuts averaging about 0.5% of GDP, and Valdes says not letting oil prices rise could cost 1% to 1.5% of GDP, urging instead targeted, temporary and transparent measures. He also said China is less vulnerable than countries with similar debt levels because of its liquid assets, capital account that is not fully open, low interest rates and high savings rate.
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- IMF official highlights mounting global fiscal challenges
- IMF official highlights mounting global fiscal challenges
Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, says governments in almost all economies face pressing fiscal challenges from high debt, higher interest rates and rising spending demands. The newly released Fiscal Monitor projects global public debt to exceed 100 percent of global GDP before 2030, and real interest rates on government debt remain above pre-pandemic levels. Defense spending, particularly in Europe and the U.S., along with population aging and climate-related investment needs, adds to the pressure. Governments have provided subsidies or tax cuts for oil averaging about 0.5 percent of GDP, which could rise to between 1 and 1.5 percent of GDP if oil-price increases are not passed on to consumers. Valdes urges measures that are targeted, temporary and transparent, and says China is less vulnerable than countries with comparable debt levels due to its liquid assets, partly closed financial account and high savings rate.
- UNDP Warns of Compounding Global Crises for Developing Econo
A UNDP report, 'No Time to Recover', warns that developing economies face compounding crises from the Middle East conflict, rising energy prices, an El Niño expected to be the strongest on record, and interest rates at multi-decade highs, all while fiscal buffers are depleted. UNDP administrator Alexander De Croo said the cost of bond financing for developing countries is 9%, 'really, really high', and sees no light at the end of the tunnel for fuel prices, El Niño or bond markets. The World Bank says poverty in the MENAAP region remains above pre-pandemic levels, with Pakistan accounting for nearly half of the region's extreme poor. The IMF warned the global economy 'could soon test the limits of resilience' as emergency oil stocks run low and high debt leaves governments with little room to protect consumers from future price jumps.
- IMF official highlights mounting global fiscal challenges
- IMF official highlights mounting global fiscal challenges
Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, says governments in almost all economies face pressing fiscal challenges from high debt, higher interest rates and rising spending demands. The IMF's Fiscal Monitor projects global public debt to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030, with real interest rates on government debt still above pre-pandemic levels. Valdes cites defense spending in Europe and the US, population aging that raises healthcare and pension costs, and climate investment needs as added pressures. Governments have so far provided subsidies or tax cuts averaging around 0.5% of GDP to contain oil prices, and he urges measures that are targeted, temporary and transparent. He also says China is less vulnerable than countries with comparable debt levels, citing its liquid assets, low interest rates and high savings rate.
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