Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September from the prior month and 11.3% year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors, with every U.S. region declining. Over the past year, the XHB homebuilder ETF is down 10% and Lennar has dropped about 36%. Berkshire Hathaway is still increasing its exposure, including the $6.8 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison in July and a September purchase that lifted its Lennar stake to 11%. The article says the sector faces a housing supply shortage and a 30-year mortgage rate near 7.4%, and that a recovery may be slow and volatile. The author cites Berkshire as one way to play a long-term housing recovery.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
housingmortgagesBerkshire Hathawayinterest rates
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- Buffett's Berkshire Is Going Long on Homebuilders. Here's Why I'm Moving in the Opposite Direction
The U.S. housing market remains stuck nearly five years after the pandemic, with mortgage rates above 7%, sticky inflation and rising home prices keeping existing home sales near 4 million a year, versus an average of 5.5 million before the pandemic. Homebuilder stocks have been flat for several years while the broader market surged. Still, Berkshire Hathaway has been aggressively buying into the sector: it acquired Arizona-based Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion, combined it with Clayton, bought South Carolina homebuilder McGuinn, and nearly doubled its stake in Lennar to 11%, making Berkshire the nation's fourth-largest homebuilder. The author, however, sold part of the State Street homebuilder ETF, XHB, after more than two years at a loss, arguing that high rates, building costs, labor shortages, tariffs and price cuts have squeezed margins, and that relief may take years.
- Wall Street Has Written Off Lennar. Here's Why That's a Mistake.
Lennar stock is down 20% year-to-date and 34% over the past year, as its quarter ended Aug. 31 saw revenue fall 9% to $8 billion and earnings drop 49% to $1.19 per share, both below estimates. CEO Stuart Miller blamed inflation, mortgage rates around 6.8% at quarter-end and weaker consumer confidence, and Lennar expects 19,500 to 20,500 new orders next quarter versus 20,879 in Q3. After the report, several analysts cut price targets, and the median target of $72.50 implies a 15% drop from $84; 48% of analysts rate the stock a sell. Berkshire Hathaway added about 3 million shares in Q2, a 30% increase, raising its stake to about 5.5%. The author argues the stock may be near a cyclical bottom and suggests long-term investors could wait for more economic clarity.
- Buffett Berkshire Is Going Long on Homebuilders . Here Why Im Moving in the Opposite Direction
The article says the US housing market has stayed frozen nearly five years after the pandemic, with mortgage rates above 7%, stubborn inflation and rising home prices keeping existing home sales around 4 million a year, versus 5.5 million before the pandemic. Berkshire Hathaway, under CEO Greg Abel, has expanded aggressively in homebuilding, buying Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion, owning 11% of Lennar and holding stakes in NVR and D.R. Horton, making it the nation's 4th-largest homebuilder. The author, however, sold part of a homebuilder ETF after more than two years of losses, citing high mortgage rates, rising building costs, labor shortages, tariffs and price cuts that pressure margins. The author expects mortgage rates may stay high for years as the Fed signals rate hikes, and prefers stocks that create their own success rather than waiting for macro conditions to change.
- Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Year High as US Housing Market Starts to 'Freeze'
The US pending home sales index fell 7.3% to 66.0 points in September 2026, its lowest since tracking began in 2001 and far below the 0.5% decline economists polled by Reuters had expected. Housing starts dropped 5.2% to 1.221 million units annualized, the lowest since the pandemic, and single-family permits fell 4.0% to 845,000 units, the lowest since March 2023. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.53% per Bankrate, the highest since November 2023, as the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00%. Redfin reported that 14.5% of September home purchase contracts were later canceled, and 43% of builders cut prices in October. The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index fell 3 points to 29, its lowest since June 2012, and the MBA expects 30-year mortgage rates to likely stay above 7% through 2027.
- Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week, but more borrowers still sought savings in riskier loans
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans (up to $832,750) fell to 7.37% from 7.41%, and total mortgage applications rose 3.4% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinance applications were still 61% lower than a year earlier, as about half of borrowers have rates below 4%, while purchase applications rose 4% but were 18% below last year. The ARM share of applications climbed to 11.3%, the highest in more than a year, and the 5/1 ARM rate eased to 6.41%; ARMs are seen as riskier because they adjust to market rates when the fixed term ends. Potential buyers remain worried about the broader economy, and some agents say buyers are waiting for the midterm election results.
- Sellers Losing Ground in the US Housing Market
The US housing market is turning in buyers' favor, with sellers cutting prices and offering incentives to close deals, a sharp reversal from the early part of this decade when homes often sold well above their asking prices. Liz Suder listed her Texas home at $750,000 in April 2025, and after more than a year and several price cuts, a buyer agreed to pay $650,000, with Suder contributing $9,000 toward repairs. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose from below 6% in February to 7.4% this month, its highest in nearly three years. According to Realtor.com, the median sale price in September fell 1.2% from a year earlier to over $419,200, the 11th straight monthly decline, and about 21% of listings had been cut from their original price. Redfin data show sellers in the 50 largest US metro areas outnumbered buyers by about 63% last month, with buyers at their lowest since 2013.
Related markets
Latest news
- Warren urges DOJ criminal probe of Bank of America over anti-money-laundering violations
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is urging the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation into Bank of America and its executives after the bank admitted willfully violating federal anti-money-laundering laws. She called the more than $1.2 billion in penalties imposed on October 13 a “slap on the wrist” and asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to decide whether criminal charges are warranted, giving the DOJ until November 12 to respond. As part of a settlement with the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the bank admitted it failed to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions in a timely manner, with over $1 billion tied to national-security and other high-priority risks. Regulators imposed penalties including a record $750 million fine from the OCC, but no criminal charges were filed. Warren argues civil fines have become “the cost of doing business on Wall Street,” while the bank says it has invested billions in compliance and is “far along” in fixing the problems.
- Tiger Gold Drills 450.9 m @ 0.6 g/t Au from Surface at Ceibal and Steps Out 175 m to the Southwest
Tiger Gold reported assays from hole CEDDH-022 at its Ceibal target in the Quinchía Gold Project in Colombia, which intersected 450.9 m grading 0.6 g/t Au from surface and ended in mineralization. Higher-grade intervals included 9 m grading 1.4 g/t Au from 288 m downhole and 8 m grading 1.3 g/t Au from 434 m downhole. CEDDH-022 is the fourth hole on its section line to return a long interval of gold mineralization from at or near surface. Step-out hole CEDDH-029, collared 175 m southwest of CEDDH-022, has assays pending, and three rigs are drilling at Ceibal with results pending from 14 holes. The drilling is intended to support a maiden Mineral Resource estimate as part of an expanded PEA for the project.
- Caterpillar Beat Earnings and Still Dropped 9%. The AI Power Trade Just Hit the Same Wall as Software.
Caterpillar reported third-quarter results on October 29, 2026, with adjusted EPS of $7.20 beating the $7.04 consensus, while revenue of $20.68 billion was nearly in line with the $20.69 billion estimate. The stock still fell 9% before the open to $647.90, after dropping 13% in the month before the report. Revenue rose 17.3%, and Power Generation sales reached $3.421 billion, up 30%, driven by turbines and large reciprocating engines sold to data centers; operating profit included $128 million of IEEPA tariff refunds. The company gave no numeric guidance and no dollar figure for its record backlog, only repeating the $72 billion cited in August. The article notes that Vertiv and GE Vernova also slipped before the open despite big beats on October 28, when Vertiv had risen 16% after raising its full-year revenue guidance.
- Alphabet vs Microsoft: Why Free Cash Flow Just Became the Only AI Scorecard That Matters
Alphabet fell 10.49% to $290.81 and Microsoft rose 2.78% to $545.78 in premarket trading on October 29, 2026, even though both reported results the same evening and are spending heavily on AI infrastructure. Alphabet's search revenue of $63.35 billion fell short of the $64.85 billion consensus, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 103% to $30.71 billion. Alphabet's capital expenditures of $51.36 billion exceeded its $42.29 billion operating cash flow, with the gap covered by $28.7 billion in senior notes and at-the-market stock sales. Microsoft, by contrast, posted fiscal first-quarter cloud revenue of $63.9 billion and free cash flow of almost $19 billion, while Alphabet's free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. The article argues that free cash flow is becoming the key yardstick for comparing the two companies.
- US stocks have done this after every midterm election since 1950 (incredible 19 out of 19 times). Time to be fearful?
The article cites a JP Morgan analysis finding that the S&P 500 posted a positive return over every 12-month period after a midterm election from 1950 to 2022, across 19 election cycles, with an average one-year return of 15.1%. It notes that some years delivered only low single-digit gains, such as after the 1986 election. A Nationwide survey cited in the piece found that 75% of investors believe the midterms could affect their long-term financial plan, and 40% said they had already made changes. The author stresses that past performance is not a guide to the future and that the 2026 election could be an outlier. The article also mentions hard assets such as real estate and gold in the context of policy uncertainty.
- Is Micron Stock Riskier Than It Looks?
Micron trades at 13.1 times its trailing twelve-month earnings, versus 22.6 times for the S&P 500, with a net margin of 63.8% over those twelve months. On its September 30, 2026 earnings call for fiscal Q4 2026, management said fiscal 2027 margins should expand from the first quarter on continued price increases, although those increases are expected to moderate over time. About three quarters of revenue under long-term supply agreements has a defined pricing framework. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $54.2 billion, up 379.3% year over year, with gross margin of 86.8%. The stock closed 19.0% below its highest close of the past year and trades at 8.3 times sales, down from 14.4 times at the end of June 2026; the article points to gross margin as the metric to watch in the report expected in December 2026.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.