The article cites a JP Morgan analysis finding that the S&P 500 posted a positive return over every 12-month period after a midterm election from 1950 to 2022, across 19 election cycles, with an average one-year return of 15.1%. It notes that some years delivered only low single-digit gains, such as after the 1986 election. A Nationwide survey cited in the piece found that 75% of investors believe the midterms could affect their long-term financial plan, and 40% said they had already made changes. The author stresses that past performance is not a guide to the future and that the 2026 election could be an outlier. The article also mentions hard assets such as real estate and gold in the context of policy uncertainty.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
midterm electionsS&P 500USgold
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/28/2026 | 772.35 |
| Change that session | +0.35% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Wealth Column : Making sense of the midterms elections and the markets
- Should You Wait Until After the Midterm Elections to Buy the S&P 500?
Since 1950, the S&P 500 was higher one year after Election Day in all 19 U.S. midterm cycles, averaging about 15% by the author's count (BNY's study put it at 16.6%). Buying two weeks before the vote made only a small difference: the index rose in 14 of 19 cycles, gaining about 1.4% on average over those two weeks. An investor who bought two weeks early and held for a year came out ahead in all 19 cycles, averaging about 17% versus about 15% for those who waited until Election Day. The index now sits about 2% below its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6 after its worst week since June, yet it is still up around 12% in 2026. The author wouldn't hold back cash for the midterms, while noting that 19 cycles is a small sample and a year's returns depend on many other factors.
- Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Ahead of Midterms. Here's What That Means for the Market.
The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4%, a result markets had widely expected with prediction markets giving over 90% odds of a hold, so the S&P 500 rose less than 0.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 1%. The statement changed only four phrases from last month: it dropped the line that today's policy action would support a timelier return to the 2 percent goal, adopted more cautious wording about gathering more information, and described economic activity as expanding at a “strong” rather than “solid” pace. Two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, wanted a quarter-percentage-point hike. Of 100 economists polled by Reuters, 94 correctly expected a hold this month, but all 100 anticipated a hike at the December 9 meeting, and prediction markets also strongly favor a December increase.
- Oct. 27 Has Historically Marked the Stock Market’s Autumn Bottom
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said October 27 has historically marked the bottom of a typical year's final dip, and stocks rose that day: the S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 7,722.60 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.18%. Reid found the S&P 500 was higher over the three months from early October in 21 of the last 23 midterm years, but cautioned that “seasonality isn’t destiny” and that worries around Iran, AI and France remain. Brent crude still settled at $113.88 after falling 1.67%. Investors are watching the Fed decision on October 28, earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, and the midterm elections on November 3. The article flags the October 23 low of 7,623.68 as the level to watch.
- Bitcoin has soared 50% on average after midterms. The S&P 500 has gained 15%.
According to CoinDesk data, bitcoin rose an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three U.S. midterm elections, excluding 2010, while the S&P 500 has averaged a 15.17% gain in the year after midterms since 1950, according to Hartford Funds. The article notes that bitcoin's four-year halving cycle may better explain those rallies, since its bear markets played out in midterm years: 2014, 2018, 2022 and now 2026. Ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms, a Democratic takeover of at least one chamber of Congress could intensify disputes over federal debt, defense spending and President Donald Trump's crypto ties, though markets have largely priced in divided government. Bitcoin is trading around $80,000 after bouncing more than 35% from below $60,000 in June.
- Trump Faces His Second Midterm as President Next Week. If The Historical Pattern Holds It Will Kick Off The Best Market Year Of His Second Term.
According to Opening Bell Daily, since 1950 the year after a midterm (year three of the presidential cycle) has been the S&P 500's strongest year by a wide margin, averaging a 17.2% gain. Only two such years saw declines, in 2011 and 2015, each by less than 1%. Over the 12 months after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 rose an average of 15.1%, though only 11 of 19 midterm years finished higher. As of noon on Oct. 27, SPY was up 12.83% year to date, while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.00% on Oct. 23. The article says the current backdrop looks tougher than average and that the presidential cycle reflects correlation rather than cause, with earnings, rates and valuations the main drivers of returns.
Related markets
Latest news
- Why Google faces a potential $400 billion market-value hit
Alphabet shares fell more than 10% in pre-market trading after its third-quarter earnings missed Wall Street estimates, a drop that could be one of the biggest market-value declines ever given the company's roughly $4 trillion valuation. A 10% decline would equal about $400 billion in value. Advertising revenue and YouTube both missed expectations, and EPS was hit by a paper loss on its SpaceX investment. Capex for the quarter was $51.36 billion, below the $55.09 billion estimate, yet Alphabet kept its 2026 capex guidance and projects $300 billion for 2027. Pepperstone's Chris Weston said the market is questioning how much investors should pay for Alphabet's AI opportunity, given the substantial cash flow costs of building it.
- Alphabet Lost About $450 Billion After Hours Even as Google Cloud Doubled
Alphabet lost an estimated $390–396 billion in value after hours on October 28, 2026, even as Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.709 billion in the third quarter and Cloud profit roughly tripled. Diluted EPS of $2.12 fell short of the roughly $3.01 consensus, as an $8.7 billion loss on equity securities cut EPS by $0.55, a non-cash revaluation. Capex rose to $51.355 billion from $23.953 billion, pushing free cash flow to negative $9.065 billion, though Alphabet kept its 2026 capex guidance of $195–205 billion. Google Cloud's backlog reached $561 billion, and about 55% of it is expected to convert to revenue within two years.
- Satya Nadella Says Renting AI Capacity to a Few Big Customers Is “Not a Business”
In its October 28, 2026 earnings call, Satya Nadella said serving about 4 large customers that buy heavy capacity, even with several quarters of growth, is “not a business” as far as he is concerned. Microsoft reported revenue of $92.3 billion, up 19%, with Azure up 48%, and shares rose 2.90% to $546.39 after hours. Nadella said Microsoft is open to selling capacity to large buyers “as long as the pricing is right,” while favoring enterprise customers running recurring workflows. Capex of $45.2 billion came in below Amy Hood's guidance of over $50 billion because some third-party capacity deliveries were delayed, while demand still exceeded supply. Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 73% to $677 billion, and OpenAI contributed $10.0 billion, about 10.8% of revenue.
- Microsoft’s Severance Offer to 60,000 Employees Is All About AI Capex Confidence
Microsoft included the cost of its voluntary exit offer for about 60,000 eligible employees in its operating expense guidance of $18.5 to $18.6 billion, while guiding calendar-year capex to approximately $170 billion. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 18.8% to $92.28 billion, Azure grew 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligation reached $677 billion, up 73%, with about 30% expected to convert to revenue within 12 months. Non-GAAP EPS was $4.89 versus a $4.72 estimate, operating cash flow rose 29% to $58 billion, and free cash flow was $18.6 billion. The company's filings warn that its cloud and AI investments may not achieve expected returns, while cash and equivalents fell 29.7% to $20.28 billion and Microsoft Cloud gross margin slipped to 66%.
- AI Has Made Flash Memory 5 Times More Expensive, and Apple Can’t Bully Its Memory Suppliers Anymore
According to The Wall Street Journal, the flash memory cost of the storage upgrade on an iPhone 17 Pro from its 256GB base rose from $15 to $66, as AI hyperscaler demand quintupled flash prices. The four biggest cloud buyers now purchase more than double Apple's NAND volume, and three of them have signed long-term contracts that guarantee suppliers high prices even if the market falls. TechInsights estimates Apple will spend about $25 billion on NAND this year, up from about $6 billion in 2025. Storage upgrades were once Apple's richest margin, at about 85%, but that cost gap is now narrowing. Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on November 2 and has not disclosed its supplier contract terms.
- Third-quarter U.S. GDP increases a better-than-expected 3.4% as September inflation accelerates
The Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 3.4% in the third quarter, above the 3.1% estimate and well up from 2.2% in the second quarter. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, slightly below the forecast of 0.6%, while personal income increased 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. The same day, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.5% in September from the prior month, lifting annual inflation to 3.6%; the monthly rate matched the Dow Jones consensus, while the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point below consensus. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, in line with consensus. A day earlier, the Fed held its benchmark rate in a 3.75%-4% range, and Chairman Kevin Warsh said officials want to assess incoming data before deciding their next move.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.