Micron's last quarterly report beat expectations, with adjusted EPS of $33.42 on $54.23 billion in revenue versus Wall Street targets of $31.72 and $51.07 billion. It guided to about $61.5 billion in sales and $38.15 in adjusted EPS for the current quarter, above the roughly $57 billion and $35.40 analysts expected. Even so, the stock is down roughly 25.5% since that report, weighed by valuation after big gains, sticky inflation, elevated bond yields, possible rate hikes and competition from Chinese memory makers. The author expects another strong report in December, citing high demand for HBM chips, and notes that a CHIPS Act restriction on buybacks is nearing its end, which would clear the way for a planned $35.16 billion in repurchases and a possible large dividend increase. The author suggests the recent volatility could make the shares worth buying.
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- Micron Stock Could Be Worth Buying Before Its Next Earnings Report
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) beat expectations in its last quarter, reporting adjusted EPS of $33.42 on revenue of $54.23 billion, versus Wall Street estimates of $31.72 and $51.07 billion. It guided for about $61.5 billion in sales and $38.15 adjusted EPS for the current quarter, both above consensus. Despite this, the stock has fallen roughly 25.5% since that report, amid sticky inflation, elevated bond yields, rate-hike risk and competition from Chinese memory makers. The article expects the next report in December, when a CHIPS Act restriction on buybacks lapses and Micron plans to repurchase $35.16 billion of stock, with a possible dividend increase. It argues that buying the shares amid the recent volatility could be a good move.
- Micron Stock Could Be Worth Buying Before Its Next Earnings Report
Micron's last quarterly report beat expectations, with non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $33.42 on revenue of $54.23 billion. It guided for current-quarter sales of about $61.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $38.15, both above Wall Street estimates of roughly $57 billion and $35.40. Even so, the stock is down roughly 25.5% since that report, after a massive run-up over the past year, amid concerns about sticky inflation, elevated bond yields, possible further rate hikes, and competition from Chinese memory makers. The article notes that demand for HBM chips remains very high, and as the CHIPS Act buyback restriction lapses, Micron is set to buy back $35.16 billion of stock and could announce a major dividend increase in December.
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Micron (MU) closed at $878.84 after a 14.58% one-week decline, while fiscal 2026 revenue reached $133.19B, up 256.3% year over year. The article's model projects a base-case value of about $1,487.40 for a $1,000 investment by 2031 (a 48.74% total return), with a bear case of $849 and a bull case of $2,684.40. Supporting factors include demand expected to exceed supply in calendar 2027 and 2028, more than 75% of 2027 output already committed, and 26 strategic customer agreements with remaining performance obligations near $150 billion. Risks cited include memory's historical cyclicality, a record 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin, $30.7B in fiscal 2026 capex, and a possible strike in Taiwan. With a beta of 2.226, the article notes that price moves could be sharp.
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According to The Kobeissi Letter, NVIDIA and Micron are expected to account for 36% of S&P 500 earnings growth in the third-quarter reporting season, contributing 5.2 and 4.6 percentage points to expected 27% year-over-year growth. NVIDIA is expected to report revenue of $108.98 billion, up 91.2% from a year earlier, while Micron's November-quarter revenue is seen at $61.67 billion. NVIDIA's supply commitments reached $279.0 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, up sharply from $119 billion in Q1, largely for memory used in Vera Rubin production that Micron supplies. The article argues these commitments signal months ahead whether AI spending is still accelerating, while rising memory prices could compress margins. The fifteen largest S&P 500 stocks now hold a record 46.7% of the index's market value, versus 27.2% during the 2000 dot-com bubble.
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FactSet lists Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) as the two biggest contributors to S&P 500 earnings growth in Q3 2026: the index's blended growth is 29%, but would be 20% without the two. Micron reported adjusted EPS of $33.42 for fiscal Q4 2026, with revenue up 379% to $54.2 billion, though its operating margin was roughly flat from the prior quarter, so future growth depends mainly on revenue. Nvidia hasn't reported fiscal Q3 yet, but its outlook points to about $108 billion in revenue, and its non-GAAP net income rose 118% to $54.0 billion in fiscal Q2 2027. Both stocks have fallen: Nvidia near $217, down 9% from its record close, and Micron near $905, about 25% below its record. Micron trades at about 12 times earnings and Nvidia about 14 times; the author argues this makes both worth buying, while noting risks from memory price cycles and slowing AI spending.
- Can Micron Stock Keep Climbing After a 10-Fold Run? Here's What Its Past Booms Say.
Micron's shares have risen about tenfold from their 2024 year-end close of roughly $84 and now sit near $903. The author argues that past Micron booms show the stock tends to fall before profits do, as earnings stayed strong for a time after prices peaked. The shares are currently 26% below their late-June closing high of $1,213.56, while GAAP earnings per share for fiscal 2026 reached $74.33 versus $7.59 the year before. Profit growth is slowing and DRAM prices are still rising but more slowly, and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12 suggests the market doesn't expect those profits to last. The author suggests investors size positions with the risk of the next downturn in mind.
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