ANZ economists say most of New Zealand's housing bubble has deflated, though house prices may fall a little further. The house-price-to-income ratio dropped from nearly 9 in 2021 to around 6, after rising from about 4 before 2002. ANZ doubts it will return to the 3-4 range seen before the 2000s, as the ratio has not been below 5 since 2004 and structural changes likely keep the equilibrium higher. Senior economist Matthew Galt noted the house-price-to-build-cost ratio was 1.54 as of June 2025, down from a 2.1 high in 2021 and near its low of 1.4 in 2011, suggesting limited further downside before construction drops away. The Reserve Bank said in September that prices were still slightly above the sustainable range, while owning a home remains costlier than renting, so downward pressure may persist.
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NZD/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 0.56844 |
| Change that session | +0.38% |
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