Archer Aviation (ACHR), a developer of eVTOL aircraft, went public through a SPAC merger in September 2021 and opened at $9.90 per share the next day, but now trades below $4. The stock has fallen because the FAA has not yet approved its first commercial flights, the company trails Joby Aviation in certification, and it has little near-term commercial revenue, ongoing losses, high valuations, and lawsuits with Joby and Vertical Aerospace. Analysts expect revenue to rise from under $1 million in 2025 to $507 million in 2028, when the $3 billion market cap equals six times sales. The article's scenario assumes analyst estimates are met through 2028, 20% revenue CAGR through 2030, and 10 times sales in the final year, which would lift the market cap to $14.6 billion, nearly fivefold, but the stock could sink much lower if it misses near-term goals.
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