Vistra (VST) shares are up 11% over the past month after a conditional commitment of up to $4.2 billion from the Energy Department for 433 MW of uprates at Beaver Valley, Davis-Besse and Perry, and a 20-year Constellation Energy deal with Google lifted power producers. The article sees the loan as a good deal for those three plants, but it comes with conditions and does nothing about the soft Texas power prices weighing on the 2027 outlook. Analysts expect normalized EPS to more than double from $4.76 in 2025 to $10.37 in 2027, yet the stock trades at about 15x forward earnings, in line with its five-year average. Vistra updates its 2027 guidance with third-quarter results on Nov. 6, and the author argues the stock is worth owning into that report. However, if the 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint falls well short of about $8.1 billion and management blames Texas prices, the loan will not help much.
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