The article cites Gartner's forecast that by 2030, over 50% of quantum computing start-ups will go out of business as viable commercial revenue runs out, and the author predicts IonQ (IONQ) will be one of the few pure-play quantum companies still standing in 2030. IonQ's trapped-ion technology delivers high fidelity, and its second-quarter revenue of $80.1 million was nearly double the combined Q2 sales of all other pure-play quantum computing companies; it also advanced to the final round of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative. IonQ forecasts 2026 revenue of $450–460 million, up from $130 million in 2025, helped by its acquisition of SkyWater Technology. IonQ ended Q2 with $3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments, but its Q2 expenses rose to $417.3 million from $181.3 million in 2025, and its trailing-12-month free cash flow was negative $570.2 million. The author argues that if IonQ meets its sales target and keeps growing, its cash could fund operations into 2030, though it must turn free cash flow positive to avoid further shareholder dilution or additional debt.
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