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President Donald Trump Claims Gasoline Prices Will "Drop Like a Rock" When the Iran War Ends, but He's Completely Missed the Bigger Picture

President Donald Trump says gasoline prices will 'drop like a rock' once the Iran war ends, but the article argues he is missing the bigger inflation picture. According to New York Fed economists, Trump's tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation by February 2026, and their effects have persisted even though the Supreme Court invalidated them in February 2026. The Iran war, which began on February 28, led to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial vessels, pushing gas prices up at the fastest pace in 30 years. The author says energy infrastructure will take months to recover, so fuel prices could stay elevated for several quarters after the war ends, and inflation is spreading beyond energy.

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