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- Qualcomm Just Dropped 13% in a Month. Is It Time to Sell, or Load Up?
Qualcomm (QCOM) shares fell 13% in the month through October 22, closing near $173, with the 7% drop on September 28 accounting for much of the decline. Arm (ARM) lost 37% over the same period, compared with a 6% decline in the Nasdaq 100, and the main pressure comes from weak handset demand and Apple-related revenue, which Qualcomm expects to fall about 50% sequentially in the quarter ending in December. Offsets include non-handset revenue up 28% last quarter, record automotive revenue of $1.6 billion, and a target of $5 billion in data center revenue by fiscal 2027. With a forward P/E of about 19x versus a five-year average of 14x, the article suggests holding looks more reasonable than selling after the correction or aggressively buying before the November 4 earnings report. The average price target of $196 implies about 13% upside from the October 22 close.
- How Investors May Respond To Qualcomm Stock Earnings Outlook Concerns
QUALCOMM affirmed a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.92 per share for December 2026, while diluted EPS fell 16.67% year on year, with a P/E of 20.00, a dividend yield of 2.03% and weaker operating margins. The company is cutting its global workforce and faces pressure in smartphones and Apple-related revenue, while committing capital to data center chips, robotics and AI partnerships with Amazon and Apple. The article notes that two hyperscaler customers have production underway, with revenue targets for fiscal 2027 and 2029. Under the current analyst narrative, revenue is projected at US$60.0b and earnings at US$11.5b by 2029, based on 10.8% yearly revenue growth, and fair value implies about 10% potential upside to the current price. The most optimistic analysts forecast US$66.9b of revenue and US$11.8b of earnings by 2029.
- What Would It Take For Qualcomm Stock To Move Higher?
Qualcomm (QCOM) stock returned 4.5% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500's 15.1%, and fiscal Q3 2026 revenue fell 4.0% from a year earlier. Qualcomm is entering the data center chip market with two custom chip customers, both global-scale hyperscalers, for which it already holds purchase orders and has started wafer manufacturing, with revenue expected from the December quarter. Management targets data center revenue of $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029, along with $40 billion in fiscal 2029 sales outside phones; these are targets, not achieved results. Qualcomm trades at 19.7 times trailing earnings versus 23.0 for the S&P 500, while gross margin fell to 53.1% from 55.6%, which management says higher memory prices are pressuring in the short term.
- Should You Buy Qualcomm Stock For Its Cash?
Over the last twelve months, Qualcomm generated free cash flow equal to 5.5% of its market value, above the 4.4% yield for the median S&P 500 company, yet its revenue fell in each of its last two quarters. Free cash flow has declined for two consecutive years, from $12.6 billion in the twelve months to June 2024 to $10.4 billion in the twelve months to June 2026. Management attributed weaker phone chip sales to industry-wide memory prices, expects Apple revenue to step down faster in fiscal Q4 2026, and is raising chip prices by a double-digit percentage. Automotive chip revenue hit a record $1.6 billion in fiscal Q3, and the company now targets $40 billion of revenue outside phones by fiscal 2029, up from $22 billion. The article notes debt of $15.3 billion against $8.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, with operating profit at 14.9 times interest costs, and says the key question is whether free cash flow can steady as Apple revenue declines.
- IBM vs. Qualcomm: Which AI Tech Giant Has More Upside Now?
The article compares IBM and Qualcomm as both expand into AI infrastructure. IBM benefits from demand for hybrid cloud and AI, but faces competition from AWS and Microsoft Azure, pricing pressure that is eroding margins, and the risk that Anthropic's Claude Code could reduce enterprises' reliance on legacy COBOL service providers such as IBM. Qualcomm relies on its Snapdragon portfolio and is expanding into AI laptops and desktops with the Snapdragon X, as well as vehicle-to-everything (V2X) systems after its Autotalks acquisition, aiming to move beyond the slowing smartphone market.
- Qualcomm Stock Has an AI Opportunity Most Nvidia Investors May Be Overlooking
Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of 9.95 billion USD, above the 9.67 billion USD estimate, though non-GAAP EPS of 2.21 USD slightly missed the 2.22 USD estimate. Handset revenue fell 20%, while automotive revenue rose 61% to 1.59 billion USD. Management targets 40 billion USD in non-handset revenue by fiscal 2029, including more than 15 billion USD from data centers, supported by two hyperscaler custom silicon deals expected to start generating revenue in the December quarter. The author sets a 12-month price target of 218.57 USD with a Buy rating, versus a current price of 180.61 USD, with bull and bear cases at 237.99 USD and 185.64 USD. Risks include a 41.13% drop in operating income from rising memory and wafer costs, and expected Apple product revenue declines of about 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter. Qualcomm trades at 34 times earnings, compared with 42 for NVIDIA.
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