U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August, while gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in the month alone. ArrowStream forecasts sharply different commodity cost changes from 2026 to 2027: fast food up 8.1%, pizza 7.9%, fast casual 7.3%, casual dining 3%, and steakhouses essentially flat at a 0.1% decline. Chicken wing costs are expected to rise 42.2% after falling 23.7% in 2026, while chicken breast rises 21.3% and cheese 13.1%, reversing this year's declines. Current low prices may not last, as chicken and pork producers begin slowing production and U.S. beef output runs about 5% below year-ago levels. The effect on individual restaurants will depend on purchasing volumes, menu mix and margins.
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