Rocket Lab will report third-quarter results after the close on Monday, with management forecasting revenue of $250 million to $265 million, up 61% to 71% year over year. Shares trade near $58, about 61% below their record close in late May, after the company said its Neutron rocket will not make its first flight until 2027. The author says the key signals are progress on replacing the forward dome of the first-stage propellant tank and whether first-quarter 2027 testing stays on schedule, since Neutron is tied to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from $26.3 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $8.8 million in the second quarter, but third-quarter guidance calls for a loss of $17 million to $23 million, and adjusted gross margin is expected at 35% to 37%, down from 41.5%. The author says he would consider a small position if the report shows Neutron on track and a loss near the better end of guidance, and would hold off if either slips.
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