Casey's General Stores (CASY), the third-largest convenience store chain in the U.S., is down 30% from its June all-time high, its biggest pullback since the Great Recession. Fiscal Q1 2027 sales and EPS rose 24% and 28%, but much of that came from fuel margins widening from $0.41 to $0.478 per gallon, which the author says will be hard to repeat. Inside sales growth slowed to 3.2% from 4.5%, shoppers are shifting to private-label products, and management kept full-year EBITDA growth guidance at 8% to 10% despite 17% growth in Q1. The valuation, once nearly 50 times earnings, has fallen to 31 times, and the author points to plans to add more than 400 stores through 2029 and 25 straight years of inside same-store sales growth as support for the long-term case. The author says he plans to add to his position in two or three tranches through 2026.
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