Schwab's SCHD ETF is up about 25% in 2026 to around $34, well ahead of the S&P 500's roughly 13% gain, though still about 3% below its August 24 record close of $35.21. The author argues nearly all of this gain came from a higher share price, not bigger payouts: the first three 2026 payments total about $0.78, only 1% above 2025, while the yield fell from about 3.8% at year-end 2025 to about 3.1%. Valuation also rose, with the portfolio's P/E climbing from about 18 in June to about 20 in August. Assuming 6% annual dividend growth and a 3.4% yield in five years, a $10,000 investment with reinvested dividends could reach a little over $14,000, roughly 7% a year, with a range of about $12,900 to $15,600 depending on the yield.
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