The article argues the global economy is at a historic turning point, as the financialization cycle ends amid mounting trouble in private equity and private credit while the US begins to re-industrialize. It frames the conflict as Wall Street and global financial centers versus Main Street and industry, noting the US carries $40 trillion in government debt. The author attributes rising US long-term rates to three factors: the unwinding of the yen carry trade, inflation now driven by a supply shock rather than money supply (M1 rose 80% from 2020 to 2024), and dollars draining out of the global system. The author expects US rates to fall while rates spike in Europe, and describes a negative credit cycle comparable to 2008, though the US government is acting early. The text is cut off before its chart section.
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interest ratesUS dollarcreditpublic debt
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