The article traces earlier industrial revolutions, when services' share of US and UK GDP rose to around 80% and 75% by 2016, and argues the fourth, driven by AI, resembles the first because it requires heavy material investment. AI consumes about 400 terawatt-hours a year, roughly 1.5% of world electricity, and the IEA projects this could more than double by 2030. Estimated data-centre infrastructure spending could reach $7 trillion, about 30% of US GDP, while Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta plan $725 billion in capital expenditure, up 77% from a year ago. The author argues this capital-heavy growth is likely to be inflationary and push bond yields higher, which could threaten the viability of public debt in overindebted countries.
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Original headline: The next industrial revolution ?
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