A war with Iran has disrupted Middle East supplies, pushing US retail fuel prices sharply higher: regular gasoline averages about US$4.36 a gallon, up 41% from a year ago, and diesel about US$6.28, up 71%, according to AAA. President Trump said Russia would partially lift its diesel export ban, selling 800,000 tons (about 6 million barrels) in October and November and another 1 million tons (about 7.5 million barrels) immediately after. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has released about 132 million barrels since March at roughly 630,000 b/d, under a planned 172 million-barrel exchange to be repaid with interest. Wood Mackenzie estimates Lower 48 crude output this month at about 11.35 million b/d, only 60,000 b/d above February's 11.29 million, because production typically takes nine to 12 months to respond to price changes, so the first increases are only now starting.
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