Warren Buffett won his 10-year bet with Protégé Partners: the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund returned 125.8% from 2008 to 2017 (around 8.5% a year), while the five funds of funds Protégé picked returned between 2.8% and 87.7%. Those funds beat the index in 2008, when the index fell 37%, but lagged in each of the following nine years. The author says the VOO fund turned $10,000 invested at the close on Dec. 29, 2017 into around $33,300 as of this writing (about 233%, almost 15% a year), compared with around $22,600 for the bet's winner over its 10 years. The author argues that most of the gap comes from 2008, the year of the financial crisis: a $10,000 investment in the index fund at the start of 2008 would be worth around $75,000 today, about 11% a year. The author still favors a low-cost S&P 500 index fund for long-term money over picking individual stocks, but suggests planning on returns closer to 8.5% a year than the almost 15% since the bet ended.
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