Brazil's October 25 presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro could reshape the country's trade ties with the United States and its global role, with polls showing Bolsonaro holding a narrow lead. If Bolsonaro wins, the right would likely have a more favorable environment to advance constitutional changes on the judiciary and presidential reelection, while Lula would face a Congress that has shifted right. Ambassador James Story says Bolsonaro would quickly seek an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade to ease Section 301 tariffs imposed in July and could expand security and critical minerals cooperation, though Lula declined a February minerals alliance with Washington. Story argues the window for a US-Brazil reset is narrow, and Brazil holds what some estimates place as the second-largest rare earth reserves in the world.
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