Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma says prediction markets are attractive because they are simple, show probabilities clearly, span many asset classes, and make the brokerage and crypto businesses better. The company recently announced KPI contracts on Apple, such as iPhone shipments, revenue and EPS, letting users express specific views without taking basis risk. Verma says prediction markets are up seven times year over year, with volume of about 6 billion monthly or quarterly, versus about 10 billion a day in Robinhood's equities business. The product currently serves mainly US retail investors, but institutions are making inquiries and the company expects global growth; Verma believes each new product tends to be additive and that over a five to 10 year view the business could become as large as the US equities market.
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