Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire's model projects SpaceX revenue rising from about $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, with about four-fifths coming from renting out AI compute. The model assumes rivals will struggle to build terrestrial compute, and Maguire called Amazon, Google and Microsoft “absolute jokes” at building in the physical world compared with SpaceX. Wall Street consensus is far lower, at $336 billion of revenue in 2028, while SpaceX says its Colossus data center was built in 122 days, against an industry norm of about two years. However, SpaceX rents compute at effectively spot market rates, one customer (identified by Bloomberg as Anthropic) accounted for 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, and analysts expect free cash flow of negative $140.7 billion in 2027. To reach Maguire's 2028 figure, SpaceX would need to grow capacity nearly tenfold from the roughly 2.2 gigawatts it expected by the end of October.
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Related tickers and likely impact
AMZN
▼ Likely negativeAmazon
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Broadline Retail |
| Market cap | $2.6T |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 245.63 |
| Change that session | +2.20% |
GOOGL
▼ Likely negativeAlphabet Inc. (Class A)
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Industry | Interactive Media & Services |
| Market cap | $3.5T |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 278.99 |
| Change that session | -0.30% |
MSFT
▼ Likely negativeMicrosoft
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Systems Software |
| Market cap | $3.9T |
| Close on 11/02/2026 | 507.12 |
| Change that session | -2.83% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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