Boeing shares fell again after management cut its outlook, with the 737 MAX production ramp-up delayed by up to a year and free cash flow (FCF) forecasts below consensus. FCF is projected at $2 billion in 2026, $3 billion in 2027, $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029, versus Visible Alpha consensus of $5.3 billion, $9.5 billion and $12.4 billion for 2027–2029. The 777X certification, expected by mid-2027, followed by first delivery, is a major risk, as delays would keep more cash tied up in undelivered aircraft. The author estimates that if Boeing reaches $10 billion in FCF in 2029 and trades at 20 times FCF, the share price would be about $252, an annual return of 14.4% to 2029, and considers management's 2027–2029 production targets conservative. The author says the stock looks attractive after the reset if production targets are met, though volatility is likely, and points to a $745 billion backlog.
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