The author estimates $5,000 invested in the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) could be worth about $8,000 by end-2030, assuming roughly 12% annual price gains, about half the fund's 23% yearly pace over the past decade. The fund is about 10% below its record close of $129.80 on Oct. 6, though it is up about 25% in 2026. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft make up about 45% of assets, and semiconductors account for roughly 38% of stock holdings. The author cites a P/E of about 33 versus about 25 for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, along with past drops of about 35% and 55%, in explaining why he does not expect the last decade's pace to repeat. Still, strong recent growth at the largest holdings, such as Nvidia's revenue more than doubling to $96.2 billion, gives them room to slow and still support that 12% pace.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
ETFtech stocksNvidiavaluationsemiconductors
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
NVDA
▲ Likely positiveNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 204.81 |
| Change that session | -4.14% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF vs. Vanguard Information Technology ETF: Here's Which One I Believe Is the Clear Long-Term Winner.
The article compares two Vanguard ETFs: the Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG), which holds 135 large-cap growth stocks at a 0.03% expense ratio, and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), which holds 318 U.S. tech stocks at 0.09%. Over the past decade, VGT returned 775% versus 420% for VUG, and a hypothetical $10,000 investment in VGT would be worth almost $88,000. Both funds have benefited from the AI boom, but VGT is more concentrated in Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft and has a 38% semiconductor weighting, while VUG offers more sector diversification. The author, who has 30 years until retirement, chooses VGT for its long-term potential, and says investors seeking less aggressive exposure could allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to it.
- Own VGT? Here's How Much of It Is Really Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) is a passive index fund holding 318 technology stocks. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Broadcom together made up about 49% of the fund's assets as of Sept. 30. The fund has averaged 15.03% annual returns since its January 2004 inception, with 24.7% over 10 years, 20.9% over five years, 35% over three years and 35.2% over the past year. VGT does not hold Alphabet, Amazon, Meta or Tesla because they are not classified as information technology under its benchmark. The article notes that investors worried about this concentration could instead buy an S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 ETF for broader diversification.
- SMH’s Price Has Soared, but Its Payout Is Still Below 2022 Levels
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has gained 47% year to date and 54% over the past year, while trailing 12-month distributions total $1.10 per share, up just 3%. At a price near $528, that gives a trailing yield of roughly 0.2%, and the fund pays once a year, usually in late December. Adjusted for a 2-for-1 split, the 2022 payment equals $1.20 per share, and the 2025 payment still came in 8% below that level, even as the fund's price rose 307% over five years. Its largest holdings pay small dividends: Nvidia (18% weight, 0.1% yield), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (9%, 0.9%), and AMD (6%, no dividend). The article calls the payout safe but thin, with a new buyer receiving about 20 cents of annual income per $100 invested, making it a bonus for growth-oriented holders rather than a reliable income source for retirees.
- Vanguard's Growth ETF Has Returned About 18% a Year for a Decade. I'd Plan on Much Less Through 2030.
The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) trades near $90, up about 10% this year and roughly 3% below its October 6 record close of $92.64. The fund has averaged about 18% annual returns, including reinvested dividends, over the past decade, but now trades at about 37 times the earnings of its holdings. Its top 10 holdings make up about 63% of assets, led by Nvidia at 12.6%, Apple at 11.7% and Alphabet at 10.3%, while the stocks have grown earnings about 32% a year over the past five years. The author forecasts earnings growth of about 15% a year and a P/E ratio falling to 30, which would take a $10,000 investment to roughly $15,000 by December 31, 2030, before dividends; if earnings grow 12% and the P/E drops to 28, the figure would be about $12,500.
- NVIDIA RTX Spark PCs Available Today — A New Beginning for Windows PCs
NVIDIA announced that RTX Spark laptops are available today from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI, with more systems to follow. The superchip combines a Blackwell RTX GPU and a Grace CPU (with a custom design co-developed with MediaTek), offering up to 128GB of unified memory and up to 1 petaflop of FP4 AI performance in slim, portable devices. NVIDIA says the laptops can run frontier AI models locally, render 3D scenes over 90GB, and play AAA games at 1440p above 100 frames per second. Day-one support covers apps like Adobe Photoshop and Premiere, agents such as Hermes and OpenClaw, and games including Gears of War: E-Day and NBA 2K27 with DLSS 5. Jensen Huang and Microsoft's Yusuf Mehdi frame the PCs as a platform for personal AI agents that can run locally or in the cloud.
- History Says This ETF Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Stock Market Sell-Off
Despite a volatile 2026, the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are up 14.6% and 11.7% year to date. The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), the largest tech fund at $149 billion, rebounded sharply after the initial sell-off when the war in Iran began, though the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered a bear market in July. Chipmakers and equipment companies make up 43.6% of the fund, which is still up 28% this year. The article argues that the Federal Reserve's high interest rates in its fight against inflation could be one factor behind the next correction. CoreWeave (CRWV) is in a bear market as yields on its corporate debt have surged over concerns about its debt load, while VGT, which holds 318 stocks, offers broad exposure with a 0.09% expense ratio, or $9 on a $10,000 stake.
Related markets
Latest news
- More than 2.5 million tax codes still cannot be closed: proposal to cut late-filing penalties by up to 70%
As of Oct. 23, more than 2.5 million taxpayers had ceased operating or were no longer at their registered address but had not completed the procedure to close their tax codes, including about 643,000 suspended cases and nearly 1.88 million cases of no longer operating at the registered address. Since the start of the year, tax authorities have closed 777,835 tax codes, yet new cases are still outpacing processing. Many businesses have overdue tax filings, and fixing them can significantly increase total penalties when closing tax codes. To address this, the Ministry of Finance proposed penalties of 30%, 50% or 70% of the standard level depending on when the missing filings are completed, with a 70% reduction if completed by June 30, 2027. The policy does not waive tax obligations or legal liability and does not apply to tax evasion, tax fraud or use of illegal invoices.
- Rubio says Trump wants to end Iran war 'peacefully' even as both sides prepare for strikes
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump would prefer to resolve the war with Iran diplomatically and without military force, while stressing the U.S. has what it needs to act militarily if necessary. His remarks come as reports from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times suggest both sides are preparing for possible renewed strikes after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the armed forces to respond to any threat with an immediate, impactful and geographically unrestricted response, and to update data on U.S. and Israeli assets. Trump told Right Side Broadcasting Network that 'either they'll make a deal, or we'll just end it.' Separately, Iran's foreign ministry designated Britain's Military Intelligence Services a 'hostile group,' accusing the U.K. of backing U.S. operations, including use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia.
- Experts: Bank of Japan to raise rates in December
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its short-term policy rate at 1.25% last Friday, with 8 of 9 Policy Board members in support, but raised its inflation forecasts and reaffirmed readiness to keep raising rates. The central bank said risks to consumer price index (CPI) forecasts are tilted upward and that medium- and long-term inflation expectations could rise, pushing core CPI above its 2% target. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ would adjust monetary policy to keep core inflation anchored around 2%. Several analysts see the hawkish stance as setting up a rate hike to 1.5% at the December meeting, and one said the BOJ might move to hikes every three months instead of six.
- Dow Jones Futures Rise But Market Still Ails; Midterm Elections Ahead
The article says tech stocks led another stock market sell-off even as Dow Jones futures rise, and the author views this as a time to be defensive. Upcoming items to watch include Apple, Palantir, jobs data and the midterm elections.
- Vietnam's manufacturing PMI edges up in October, but firms face tougher conditions, international expert points to causes
Vietnam's manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September, marking the 16th consecutive month of improvement, according to S&P Global. However, output and new orders growth slowed, while input costs rose at their fastest pace since June due to higher oil, fuel and transport prices. Supplier delivery times lengthened the most since April, and employment fell for a third straight month. S&P Global Market Intelligence's Andrew Harker said Vietnamese firms are finding it harder to sustain growth, mainly due to challenges from the international environment. Output expectations for the next 12 months improved and business sentiment reached an eight-month high, though optimism remains below levels seen before the Middle East war.
- Intel Shares Collapse. Why I'm Still Not Buying the Stock
Intel shares fell 28.58% after the chipmaker issued weak Q4 guidance amid a slowdown in the PC market, even though the stock had risen about 150% year-to-date on demand for server CPUs. Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, with the data center and AI segment up 78% to $7.3 billion. For Q4, Intel projected revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.25, below analyst expectations, and expects a $600 million revenue hit from an explosion at a fab in Israel. The PC segment is expected to keep declining, the foundry business still posted a $1.9 billion loss, and the company is losing server CPU share to rivals. The author says the stock still does not deserve a premium valuation even after the drop, with a forward P/E of 30 times based on 2027 estimates, so the author does not see it as an attractive investment.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.