ExxonMobil (XOM) reported third-quarter earnings of $15.4 billion on Oct. 30, more than doubling its prior-year profit, with adjusted earnings of $17.5 billion, or $4.23 per share, and free cash flow of $19.1 billion. The author highlights $9.1 billion in adjusted Energy Products earnings from refining and fuels, up from $4.1 billion in the second quarter, helped by stronger refining margins. Over the same period, adjusted upstream earnings fell from $9.2 billion to $7.3 billion. The author argues refining margins can shift sharply and may be hard to sustain, so a retreat toward historical levels could significantly reduce earnings. The author sees ExxonMobil as financially strong but says they would wait for a pullback rather than buy with shares trading near $185.
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