SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 11% in October as sentiment toward AI stocks soured, and now trade below $140, close to the $135 IPO price. The author argues the stock trades more on its growth story than its fundamentals, noting that goals such as sending people to Mars or building space data centers are uncertain, and that a New York Times review found most of Musk's more than 600 claims were hard to verify or often late. The latest quarter's operating profit came mainly from the connectivity business, including Starlink, while the space segment remains unprofitable and Super Intelligence capex of $16.4 billion exceeded total quarterly revenue of $14.6 billion. With a market cap of around $2 trillion, the author says the stock carries valuation and volatility risk, and would not buy at the current price.
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SpaceX (SPCX) listed on June 12 at $135 per share, hit a record high of $211.39 on June 16, and now trades at about $145. Revenue rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025, and Elon Musk has said the company could reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. At its peak, the market cap reached $2.64 trillion, or 58 times the $45.3 billion in 2026 revenue analysts expected, while rising interest rates and Treasury yields pushed investors toward safer assets. In the first half of 2026, Starlink's $2.84 billion operating profit was offset by operating losses of $1.20 billion in space and $3.73 billion in AI. The author says he would not buy if the stock dips slightly below its IPO price, but would consider a small speculative long-term position if it falls much lower.
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