Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal with an implied enterprise value of $115 billion, with each Lumentum share converting into 4.500 Marvell shares under a fixed ratio that has no price protection. Marvell shares have fallen 36.5% from the last unaffected close, turning the offer's 23.9% premium into a discount, and Lumentum closed at $626.75, about 12.8% below the $719.10 value of the offer. The article reads this wide spread as doubt about the deal closing on current terms or about Marvell's stock, with closing expected in the first half of calendar 2028 pending shareholder votes, antitrust and foreign-investment reviews. Analyst targets averaging $321.87 imply about 101% upside, but the article says many were likely set before the deal, even as fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 36.5% to $2.739 billion and third-quarter revenue is guided to $3.150 billion. The companies project more than $1 billion in annual cost savings, and the article concludes the stock case looks weaker than the business case.
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