The author predicts Netflix will begin paying a dividend in 2027, after its stock fell 7% over the past five years while the Nasdaq Composite rose 75% and the S&P 500 rose 66%. Revenue and earnings are at record highs but are inflated by a one-time $2.8 billion termination fee from Skydance, and full-year 2026 advertising revenue is now projected at $2.7 billion, down from $3 billion. Netflix bought back 63.9 million shares for $4.8 billion in Q3 2026, its largest quarterly repurchase ever, and has $22.3 billion of authorized buybacks remaining; the author views the size of these buybacks as the best signal a dividend could be coming. Analysts' average estimate is $3.77 in 2027 EPS, up 5.3% from $3.58 in 2026, and the stock trades at 16.4 times projected 2026 earnings versus 18.7 for the S&P 500.
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