California voters are deciding today on Proposition 40, the Billionaire Tax Act, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of Californians worth more than $1 billion, affecting the state's roughly 250 billionaires. A recent Public Policy Institute of California poll shows it trailing, with 46% in support and 52% opposed, after a $300 million ad campaign funded by tech billionaires and business groups. Tax experts say Proposition 42, a 'poison pill' measure that would permanently ban new state taxes on personal property and retroactive taxes, could undermine it if it gets more votes, as voters fear for their retirement accounts. Jared Walczak of Walczak Policy Consulting said both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42, created by a political action committee funded by tech executives and billionaires opposed to the tax, could win majority support.
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- California's Proposition 40: What voters need to know about the billionaire wealth tax
Proposition 40 would authorize a one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth above $1 billion, with the vote set for November 3. A September UC Berkeley IGS poll found 45% of likely voters backing it and 42% opposed, while a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC Universal and Telemundo showed a 10% Yes advantage. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket put the odds of passage below 30%. Most revenue would fund state healthcare programs to offset cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act; supporters estimate about $100 billion, while the Hoover Institution estimates $30 billion. Critics warn that billionaires could leave the state, and the nonpartisan fiscal advisor estimates a possible ongoing decrease of less than $1 billion per year in state income tax revenue from billionaires.
- It’s not just California’s billionaire tax. Wealth is on the ballot in the midterm elections.
Several states are facing ballot measures on taxing the wealthy. The article suggests there may be even more initiatives of this kind in 2028.
- California billionaire tax could backfire, Stanford study says
Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh argue in an NBER working paper that California's proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth could raise far less than projected and ultimately reduce state revenue. Seven billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have publicly left the state, removing about $540 billion, or 30%, of California's billionaire wealth from potential taxation. The authors estimate the measure could generate only about $30 billion, versus the $100 billion projected by proponents, while losing $1 billion to $3.5 billion a year in income tax revenue could leave the state about $39 billion worse off in present-value terms if those losses persist. The measure, Proposition 40, goes to voters next month, and a Citrin-Politico poll found 46% of likely voters in favor and 43% opposed. Supporters, including Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz, argue the tax will fund health care and that California has attracted more venture funding since the proposal was announced.
- California's billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds
California voters will decide on Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' assets, in less than a month, and the measure has drawn heavy opposition from state billionaires. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has spent more than $100 million fighting it, and Peter Thiel has put millions toward opposition; Gov. Gavin Newsom also publicly opposes it. As of Oct. 13, Kalshi put the chance of passage at 26% and Polymarket at about 25%. An early September PPIC poll, however, found 52% of respondents planned to vote yes versus 46% no, and a majority would back measures that heavily limit the tax's power. The article cautions that prediction markets' strong 2024 election record does not guarantee accuracy on every vote.
- Billionaires Are Wealthier Than Ever. Why Many Don’t Have the Cash to Pay New Taxes.
Billionaires hold more wealth than ever, but many lack the cash to pay new taxes. The article says private bankers serving wealthy clients will help those with limited liquidity decide whether to sell assets, use cash or borrow.
- Tax the rich and save the world
The article argues that taxing the ultra-wealthy could help protect the planet, citing the Patriotic Millionaires, a group of more than 200 high-net-worth Americans lobbying Congress to raise their own taxes. It disputes the claim that the top 1% pay about 40% of tax revenue, since that figure covers only federal income taxes and ignores payroll, state and local taxes; the Congressional Research Service estimates about 63% of filers pay more in payroll taxes than federal income taxes. It highlights California’s 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5% levy on billionaire wealth spread over five years that could raise about $100 billion. The writer notes California’s roughly 250 billionaire households paid on average just 0.26% of their wealth annually in state income taxes from 2019 to 2025.
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