The S&P 500 closed September at 7,651.54 and October at 7,580.07, two monthly losses of about 0.5% and 0.9% and the first such pair since 2023, yet it was still up about 11% this year. Across 16 past years since 1950 with declines in both months, the index rose over November and December in 12 and gained a median of about 3.7% over those two months, and was higher a year after October in 14, with a typical gain of about 13%. The two losing outcomes, 1989 and 2000, were followed by a recession starting in August 1990 and the dot-com bust, respectively. The CAPE valuation was around 41 at the start of October, and among the earlier years only 2000 came close, at about 39. The author says the two-month dip tells little by itself, and sees no reason in this history to stop or speed up regular index-fund investing, while keeping expectations modest given the valuation.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 754.41 |
| Change that session | +0.31% |
QQQ
▲ Likely positiveInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 685.34 |
| Change that session | +0.62% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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