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US dollarmidterm electionsemploymentDXY
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Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/30/2026 | 101.96 |
| Change that session | +0.08% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- US Dollar Falls Early Friday Ahead of Employment Costs, Chicago PMI
The US dollar weakened against its major trading partners early Friday. The move came ahead of the release of employment cost data and the Chicago PMI.
- US jobless claims fell to 194 , 000 last week , lowest since July
US jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week from 200,000 the week before, the fewest in three months, a sign that layoffs remain low. Claims have not topped 230,000 in any single week this year, and the four-week average dipped to 197,750. Despite higher energy prices since the fighting with Iran began on Feb. 28, the job market has held up, with a “low-hire, low-fire” pattern as hiring remains sluggish. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.2% last month. Employers have added an average of 68,000 jobs a month this year, up from 9,700 in 2025 but below 166,000 in 2023–2024 and 491,000 during the 2021–2022 rebound.
- Stocks and dollar drop as Democrats enjoy big early wins
Asian stocks and the dollar fell on Wednesday as the Democrats built big early leads in the US midterm elections, aiming to take control of both the House and the Senate. The vote was seen as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, amid public anger over surging petrol prices, tariffs and the Iran war. The Democrats' capture of North Carolina brought them closer to overcoming the Republicans' 53-47 Senate majority, while Polymarket put their chances at 100 percent for the House and 99 percent for the Senate. Analysts warned that a divided Congress would mean little gets done, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields, and Trump threatened to be 'Mr Veto' and block Democratic legislation. In Tokyo, the market lost more than three percent and chipmaker Kioxia plunged more than 13 percent as investors fretted over when AI spending would pay off.
- US Dollar Mixed Early Tuesday Ahead, Eyes on Midterm Elections
- BofA flags further downside risk for stocks, yields and dollar
BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett remain 'tactically risk-off' until mid-November, expecting stocks, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to fall further, with 30-year yields drifting toward 5% and the dollar index dipping below 100. The selloff is expected to continue until a Democratic midterm sweep is fully priced in, the ECB and French government halt the rout in French bonds, and an AI capex cut or extreme equity issuance marks a peak in hyperscaler debt spreads. The near-term risk is hyperscaler bond spreads surging above 200 basis points, which could force deleveraging in shadow-banking credit. The strategists say investor conviction in an AI bubble or a broadening Goldilocks rally for 2027 is too high, while fear of a hard landing is too low.
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Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha said the SBV will actively manage liquidity and supply capital to the market to support lower interest rates, amid high credit demand and global inflation pressure on rates. The SBV has asked credit institutions to cut deposit rates by 0.5-1% per year for new deposits with terms of 6 months or more and to reduce lending rates by 1.5-2% for production, business and priority sectors. Banks have uniformly cut listed rates by 0.5% per year, actual deposit rates fell about 0.4%, and new loan rates fell 0.2-0.5% compared with early October. More than 20 banks have announced preferential credit programs, and the SBV recently launched a 6-month FX-to-VND swap tool.
- Democrats win US House to secure control of Congress in midterms
Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms, winning House seats in districts where Trump beat his Democratic opponent by up to 18 percentage points in 2024. They also flipped at least seven Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina, according to the Associated Press. From January 2027 they will take control of House committees, allowing subpoenas and investigations into the Trump administration and his family's business interests, which could reshape the outlook for crypto legislation and bring greater scrutiny of Trump-linked digital asset businesses. Commentators cited affordability, including high energy costs and renewed rate increases, as the defining issue, while David Gokhshtein blamed Republican candidates for failing to connect with voters. Prediction markets had put the chance of Democrats winning both chambers at roughly 75% before the results were announced.
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- Gold, silver and precious metals prices jump, dollar dips as Democrats take control of Congress
Precious metals rallied early Tuesday after vote counting in the U.S. midterms pointed to Democrats winning the House, while the dollar index fell about 0.3%. Spot gold rose 2% to $4,005.40 an ounce and spot silver jumped 4% to $51.68, with platinum up 3.3% and palladium up 3.8%. StoneX's Rhona O'Connell said Democratic control of both chambers could bring fiscal brinkmanship and uncertainty, but gold should find support as rates and the dollar may come under pressure. Gold and silver have lost momentum this year, with gold down more than 7% and silver down almost 28% year to date. Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn said the recovery remains fragile, as restrictive monetary policy limits safe-haven demand and investors may sell metals to raise cash during equity selloffs.
- Democrats Have Retaken the House and Senate -- but There's an Even Bigger Winner Today
According to the Associated Press, Democrats have taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and President Trump will work with a Democrat-led Congress starting in early January. The article notes that a divided Congress is unlikely to pass major tax and spending bills, but could complicate debt-ceiling talks in 2027 and raise the risk of a lengthy government shutdown, while Democrats favor stricter AI rules such as limiting data center expansion. Prediction markets put Democratic control at 94% for the House and 77% for the Senate, while UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning both chambers. Citing Retirement Researcher, the article says the S&P 500 has averaged 16.63% annual gains since 1926 under a Democratic president and a divided Congress, versus 7.33% under a Republican president and a split Congress. The article argues that company operations and innovation, rather than political outcomes, are the main drivers of long-term investor returns.
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