BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett remain 'tactically risk-off' until mid-November, expecting stocks, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to fall further, with 30-year yields drifting toward 5% and the dollar index dipping below 100. The selloff is expected to continue until a Democratic midterm sweep is fully priced in, the ECB and French government halt the rout in French bonds, and an AI capex cut or extreme equity issuance marks a peak in hyperscaler debt spreads. The near-term risk is hyperscaler bond spreads surging above 200 basis points, which could force deleveraging in shadow-banking credit. The strategists say investor conviction in an AI bubble or a broadening Goldilocks rally for 2027 is too high, while fear of a hard landing is too low.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
bondsUS dollarmidterm electionsartificial intelligenceDXY
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
DXY
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: high
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 101.62 |
| Change that session | -0.07% |
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
QQQ
▼ Likely negativeInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: medium
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 704.47 |
| Change that session | -2.86% |
EUR/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1.12168 |
| Change that session | -0.14% |
XAU/USD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 4,024.59 |
| Change that session | -2.82% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Stocktwits Weekly Spread: What Shaped Treasury Yields And The Dollar This Week
U.S. government bonds rallied sharply in the week ending October 23 as AI tech stocks retreated and corporate credit risks rose, prompting a flight to quality. Gartner warned that AI data center owners could face up to $4 trillion in asset write-down risk by 2032 if hyperscaler revenue fails to cover heavy capital expenditure. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5.00% for the first time in several weeks, the 30-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 5.32%, and the 10-year to 2-year spread narrowed to 0.31% from 0.37%. Credit default swap prices on neocloud providers and AI hardware builders surged, pushing CoreWeave (CRWV) down about 12% for its third straight weekly decline, while the Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2% this week.
- Wholesale inflation surged in September , keeping affordability in focus ahead of the midterms
The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September, its highest level in over four years and above economists' forecasts of 0.5% and 5.3%. Energy drove 80% of the 2.9% jump in goods prices, while core PPI rose 0.7% and 5% annually. Earlier, September CPI reached 3.7% annually, with core inflation at 2.6%. Retail sales slowed to 0.8% in September after 1.3% in August, and only 0.2% excluding gas stations; adjusted for inflation, sales were even weaker. Economists say price pressures are spreading to food and consumer goods, and Treasury yields fell as investors moved into bonds after a drop in AI stocks.
- Dollar Sees Support as T-note Yields Rise
The dollar index (DXY00) rose 0.20% on Friday, supported by a 4 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing PMI and consumer sentiment reports. The dollar also drew safe-haven support from Middle East tensions, including concerns about Houthi activity.
- US Dollar Turns Slightly Lower Against The Loonie; 10-Year Treasury Yields Nudge Higher
- Dollar Trades Near 101 . 70 as 10 - Year Treasury Yield Falls Intraday
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near 101.70 in Asian trading on October 22, while Reuters reported a New York reading of 101.82, up 0.14%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell intraday to 4.96% on Thursday, according to AP, from 5.13% late Wednesday. Treasury's daily par-yield series put the 10-year at 5.13% on October 21, below 5.28% on October 7 but above 5.12% on October 20. Futures pricing still pointed to a possible December rate increase, with probabilities of about 88% per Reuters and about 90% per FXStreet. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16, and its next policy decision is due October 28.
- Dollar Consolidates Above 3-week Low
The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.07% on Wednesday, consolidating slightly above the 3-week low hit last Friday. Support came from a 0.6 bp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield, which bolstered US interest-rate differentials. The dollar also drew safe-haven support after a Wednesday afternoon Reuters report on the US, though the article is cut off before details.
Related markets
Latest news
- Next week, a bank closes its record date for a 50% dividend, the highest in the sector in 2026
Techcombank (TCB) has set October 30, 2026 as the final registration date for its stock dividend, at a 50% ratio: shareholders holding 100 shares will receive 50 new shares. This is the highest ratio in the banking sector in 2026, above HDBank and LPBank (30%) and VPBank (26%). The bank plans to issue more than 3.543 billion shares, worth over 35,431 billion VND at par value, funded by undistributed profit in its audited 2025 financial statements. Charter capital is expected to rise from 70,862.4 billion VND to about 106,293.6 billion VND, overtaking MB (100,687 billion VND) and VPBank (100,000 billion VND) as the largest in the system. If the planned ESOP issuance is also completed, charter capital could reach nearly 106,600 billion VND.
- Stocks making big moves this week: Braze, Amkor, Oceaneering, Arhaus, and Silgan Holdings
Braze (BRZE) jumped 51.2% on Tuesday after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company for about $5.66 billion in enterprise value. Amkor (AMKR) rose 7.1% on Wednesday after announcing a new $1.3 billion agreement with NVIDIA to expand capacity in South Korea, bringing its multi-year commitments across Arizona and South Korea to $3 billion. Oceaneering (OII) fell 17.5% on Thursday after reporting a 26% year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2026 net income attributable to the company. Arhaus (ARHS) rose 2.6% on Wednesday as investors kept bidding up shares after Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight and raised his price target to $13 from $9. Silgan Holdings (SLGN) gained 5.1% on Monday after agreeing to combine its metal packaging business with Trivium Packaging in a deal that delivers $2.3 billion in cash proceeds.
- International Business : Euro zone private sector growth slows
Euro zone private sector growth slowed in October to its weakest pace in four months, as energy-driven cost increases and a renewed contraction in France weighed on activity. The S&P Global flash Composite PMI Output Index fell to 51.9 from 53.1 in September, its lowest since June and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll that had predicted 52.7. Input costs rose sharply again, linked to higher energy, fuel and transport costs partly due to the Middle East war, and firms raised selling prices at a slower pace than in September. Higher interest rates are also beginning to dampen demand, and a Reuters poll expects the ECB to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% next week before raising it by 25 basis points in December. Business confidence fell to a five-month low, with France standing out for pessimism, as its PMI pointed to contraction and confidence hit its lowest since 2012 outside the pandemic period.
- Gold next evolution
The article argues that tokenization could give gold a larger role in the financial system, with the World Gold Council estimating it could unlock up to $700 billion in latent investment demand. This comes as U.S. real yields have climbed to their highest level in 19 years, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate income. Tokenized gold could let financial institutions use gold more efficiently as collateral, finance transactions, meet margin requirements and access liquidity without selling their holdings. The article notes challenges such as the need for trusted custodians, transparent ownership structures, reliable redemption mechanisms and common standards to avoid a fragmented market. It also stresses that tokenization would not remove gold's sensitivity to real yields or turn it into an income-producing asset.
- International Business : Tech selloff relents as oil prices hit five - month high
The global tech selloff eased after fears over the vast funding needs of AI hit Wall Street and triggered the biggest rally in US Treasuries in more than three years. Brent oil, however, hit a new five-month high of $115 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports that the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. European natural gas prices climbed another 4% and were almost 30% higher so far this month. The Nasdaq had tumbled 2.6% on Thursday, its biggest slump since June, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index plunged almost 7%. Japan's Nikkei ended its week down over 4%, while mainland China's CSI300 rose 1.7% after hitting its lowest level since July 2025.
- Wall Street doubts gold near - term strength , Main Street maintains bullish minority as central banks take center stage
Gold fell sharply over the week as rising oil prices, persistent inflation worries and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening outweighed safe-haven demand. A technology-led equity selloff on Thursday triggered more liquidations and pushed spot gold back below $4,000 per ounce. Gold hit a weekly low of $3,975.10 per ounce, its lowest since early June, after trading at $4,164.69 on Sunday evening. The latest Kitco survey showed Wall Street pessimism rising while Main Street kept a more bullish minority view. Several analysts still see $4,000 as support, though others point to weak technical signals and thin liquidity, with daily volumes around 129,000 contracts.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.