News about dilution

On Monday, Elon Musk posted on X that next year he will give one SpaceX share to every child in America, calling it “the first of many.” Assuming the same definition of a kid as the roughly 72 million American children under 18, he would need only about 1.8% of his 3.9 billion B shares, worth roughly $12 billion at today's price, against an estimated net worth of about $1 trillion. Because he can use shares he already holds, no new shares need to be issued and existing shareholders would not be diluted. Class A shares carry 10 times the voting power of B shares, giving Musk about 85% control of SpaceX, which he is not expected to give up. Longer term, the impact on other shareholders is slight, though many recipients may sell quickly, and nearly 100 million SPCX shares trade daily.

On Sept. 11, Oklo (OKLO) launched an at-the-market equity program to sell up to $1 billion in shares, its latest stock sale since going public through a SPAC merger on May 10, 2024. Outstanding shares rose from about 122.1 million at the merger close to roughly 192.3 million, a 58% increase, after 7.3 million more shares were issued under a May program. Early shareholders who have not sold now own about 37% less of the company, although the share price is up 311% as of Oct. 12. The stock hit a 52-week low on Oct. 8 and trades near $35, so raising $1 billion now would take about 29 million shares versus about 18 million under the May program. The article calls dilution a significant risk that could continue until Oklo reaches profitability.

Archer Aviation (ACHR) trades near $5 a share, down from about $7.50 at the close of 2025 and below $7 for much of 2026. The eVTOL company earned just $300,000 in revenue in 2025, and its Midnight aircraft still lacks FAA approval for commercial flights. The author expects FAA type certification by 2029, noting Archer has completed three of four certification phases, and sees upside from a planned purchase of three Boeing subsidiaries, including Insitu, a drone maker with over $200 million in annual revenue. The main risk is dilution from further capital raises and shares issued for the deal, as Archer lost about $260 million in the second quarter alone. The author sees a shot at $8 a share by October 2029, which would turn $5,000 into $8,000, while stressing that this is not a guarantee.