News about Polymarket

Utah Attorney General Derek Brown sued Kalshi, its affiliates and two Susquehanna trading companies, alleging the prediction market platform has facilitated illegal betting in the state since 2024. Utah asked the court to compel the companies to return about $30 million to $60 million in profits and to stop sports, election, politics and culture bets in Utah. The lawsuit alleges Kalshi illegally served more than 32,000 users in the state, causing significant losses. A judge had earlier ruled for Utah in August, and an appellate court denied Kalshi's injunction request in September. The case is one of many filed by states against prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, as the U.S. Supreme Court considers New Jersey's case.

Ultra-short-term prediction contracts on cryptocurrency price moves are growing in popularity, with Coinbase offering 15-minute contracts on Bitcoin, Ethereum and eight other major cryptocurrencies from Oct. 6, and Kalshi supplying the infrastructure. Financial Times reporting showed that five- to 15-minute contracts made up more than half of crypto betting on Kalshi and Polymarket as of March 2026. The author argues most bettors will lose money due to high fees and faster automated traders. A Galaxy Research report from Oct. 1 found that 69% of 2.9 million Polymarket accounts apparently run by people lost a combined $338.9 million, while 125,429 automated accounts gained $246.8 million. The author concludes that long-term investors have no good reason to use these contracts as a hedge or for returns, and expects tighter regulation to follow.

Speaking at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan suggested crypto investors could earn superior returns by trading prediction market event contracts instead of buying crypto on the spot market. The article describes the crypto market as driven by “irrational exuberance” and a “hot potato” game, where altcoins promising 100x returns often crash, with Bitcoin and Ethereum as notable exceptions. It argues prediction markets offer more “predictable” returns, citing a hypothetical example of Bitcoin contracts accumulated when BTC was $60,000 that would be profitable with Bitcoin near $85,000, and noting such contracts can also profit in falling markets. The author says prediction market contracts shouldn’t make up an entire portfolio because that would be too risky, but could boost a long-term buy-and-hold portfolio.