JPMorgan lowered its price target for Alibaba from $210 to $200 but kept its Overweight rating, implying about 81% upside from the roughly $110.80 share price on October 12. As of October 9, the stock was still about 38% below its October 29, 2025 closing high of $179.97, as profitability weakened amid heavy AI and quick-commerce investment. Normalized earnings per ADS fell about 59%, from RMB 65.41 in fiscal 2025 to RMB 26.80 in fiscal 2026, and in the June quarter net income dropped roughly 75% while free cash flow was an outflow of RMB 44.7 billion. On the positive side, AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue rose 45% year over year, and Bank of America's Joyce Ju raised her target to $178. The article stresses that JPMorgan's $200 target requires a meaningful earnings recovery, while the consensus target from 39 analysts is about $186.
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