Seagate Technology (STX) shares fell 15.09% in one week to $753.25, even though analysts made no downward earnings estimate revisions, and the average price target of $1,142.17 implies 51.6% upside. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 34.06% to $12.195 billion with record free cash flow of $3.1 billion, and the stock is up 174.44% this year, though it sits about 34% below its 52-week high of $1,143.27 after Barron's flagged a Toshiba problem for hard drive makers. Management said nearline capacity is almost fully allocated through calendar 2027, and Seagate has beaten EPS estimates for five straight quarters, with fiscal Q1 EPS guidance of $7.30. Risks include data center sales making up 80% of revenue and reliance on a few hyperscalers, a beta of 2.081, competition from Toshiba and Western Digital, and exchangeable notes due 2028 that could dilute shareholders. Of the 25 covering analysts, 4 rate the stock Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 2 Hold and 1 Strong Sell.
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