The Bank of Canada's business outlook survey, published Oct. 19, drew on interviews from Aug. 6 to Sept. 2, most of which were completed before U.S. trade talks failed on Aug. 21. Later responses showed a setback, with firms expecting weaker export sales and feeling less confident about their prospects, as new U.S. tariffs, Canadian counter-tariffs and higher oil prices weighed on outlooks. About half the surveyed firms planned to pass on at least some cost increases linked to tariffs and the Middle East conflict, while hiring plans stayed subdued. Statistics Canada reported consumer prices rose 3.1% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.0% in August, and the central bank kept its overnight rate at 2.25% with its next decision due Oct. 28.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on econotimes.com ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 1.41108 |
| Change that session | -0.20% |
DXY
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 101.98 |
| Change that session | +0.20% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
- Sentiment improved , but new tariffs weigh on business outlook : BoC report
The Bank of Canada's business outlook survey found average business sentiment improved in the third quarter, though firms remained worried about rising costs and the war in the Middle East. About three-quarters of the interviews, however, took place before trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down at the end of August and Canada announced new counter-tariffs. Afterward, firms pointed to new U.S. tariffs on some goods and Canadian counter-tariffs as weighing on their outlooks, and the bank said tariffs are dampening sentiment, weakening export and investment prospects, and pushing up costs and prices. A separate consumer survey found long-term inflation expectations rose to match short-term ones, and consumers reported better financial health than last quarter, though high prices and economic uncertainty still weigh on them. The bank's next rate decision and monetary policy report are due Oct. 28.
- Higher gas prices drove inflation up to 3 . 1 % in September : StatCan
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September from 3% in August, as the Middle East war kept pushing up gasoline prices, which were up 27.8% from a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.2%, while fuel oil and other fuels surged 57.8%, hitting Atlantic Canada hard. Grocery inflation slowed to 1.7%, the smallest annual increase since May 2024, as fresh vegetable prices fell 2.9%. Shelter prices accelerated to 1.8% from 1.5%, and economists had broadly expected inflation at 3.2%. CIBC's Andrew Grantham said the report suggests policymakers have little rush to raise rates before assessing U.S. trade relations and new tariffs, while Governor Tiff Macklem warned that persistent energy prices raise the risk of broader inflation.
- Financial markets betting on BoC rate hike next week despite subdued inflation data
Financial markets have begun pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike next week, giving more weight to Governor Tiff Macklem's hawkish remarks than to September inflation that came in better than expected. Statistics Canada reported annual inflation rose to 3.1% from 3%, driven by a 6.1% monthly jump in gasoline prices, while excluding energy it eased to 2.2%. Swap markets priced about an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 decision, up from roughly 35% on Friday, and several Bay Street forecasters switched to calling for a hike, though it remains a minority view. Royce Mendes of Desjardins said central bankers can no longer look through the inflationary impact of high energy prices, while the BoC's two preferred core measures fell to 1.9% and 1.8%. Macklem said that if oil stays around US$100, inflation would gradually drift up from 3%, and the bank will weigh whether inflation returns to target on its own or whether rates must rise.
- Businesses expect Canada inflation rate to remain above 3 %
The Bank of Canada's quarterly Business Outlook Survey, released Monday, shows many businesses expect Canada's inflation rate to stay above 3% over the next two years, and about half plan to pass on some or all cost increases linked to the Iran war and tariffs. Inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September from 3% in August, mainly due to higher energy prices. In the companion Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, households' median expectations were 4.03% for the next year and 3.88% for the next two years, with tariffs cited as the top factor. Firms' outlooks worsened and inflation expectations rose after trade talks with the U.S. broke down on Aug. 22, but they are not expected to return to levels seen at the start of the trade conflict in March 2025 or the April oil-price peak. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision on Oct. 28, and these surveys are among the inputs for that decision.
Related markets
Latest news
- Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC shed $54.9 million, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows. The inflow more than erased last week's $228.5 million of withdrawals, but funds remain about $90.5 million in net outflows for October, according to CoinDesk calculations. Ether funds moved the opposite way, losing $103.3 million in their fourth consecutive session of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that.
- A Big4 bank cut deposit rates in the morning, then raised them again in the afternoon
VietinBank cut its deposit rates for terms of 6 months and longer on the morning of Oct. 20, then restored them to pre-adjustment levels by the afternoon. Its afternoon rate board showed 3.5% per year for 6 to under 12 months, 5.9% for 12 to under 24 months and 6% for 24 months and longer, versus 3%, 5.4% and 5.5% in the morning. Rates for terms under 6 months stayed unchanged, including 2.1% for 1 to under 3 months and 2.4% for 3 to under 6 months. The move came as banks followed the State Bank of Vietnam's guidance to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage points for terms of 6 months and longer, and Vietcombank and Agribank were among those reducing rates.
- IVV vs. SPY: Which S&P 500 ETF Is the Better Buy for Long-Term Investors?
The article compares two ETFs that track the S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which have nearly identical holdings. The main difference is the expense ratio: IVV charges 0.03% a year, one-third of SPY's 0.09%, and its distribution yield is about 1.1% versus 1% for SPY. SPY's high liquidity remains valuable for active traders. The article concludes that IVV is the better choice for long-term investors, since lower costs can compound over time.
- Warren Buffett Is Issuing a Stark Warning About the Stock Market. Here's What History Says Comes Next.
Warren Buffett has warned that investors are taking on too much risk, likening the market to 'a church with a casino attached' and saying people have never been in a more gambling mood. The article points to the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, which has stayed above 40 since May of this year; historically, the only other time it held above that level for months was during the dot-com bubble, when it peaked around 44 before the bear market began in March 2000. The article notes that 40 is not an automatic trigger for a downturn, and no metric can predict timing. It suggests investors focus on quality stocks with solid fundamentals and be ready to hold them for at least a few years.
- Early Uber Investor Jason Calacanis Predicts Waymo Could Buy Lucid Or Rivian — Calls Its Chinese-Car Optics ‘Really Bad’
Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis predicts Waymo will buy Lucid Group (LCID) or Rivian Automotive (RIVN), arguing that its reliance on Chinese-made Zeekr vehicles creates cost and reputational problems. He says the arrangement is technically not illegal today, but Waymo would need to pay a tariff of over 100%, and it has drawn national-security concerns on Capitol Hill. According to Semafor, Waymo aims to grow its fleet from about 4,000 vehicles to 8,000 by the end of 2026 and 20,000 by the end of 2027, after closing a $5 billion term loan and a $16 billion equity raise this year. Uber has committed to buying at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles, while its Rivian deal starts with 10,000 autonomous R2 SUVs, with rides expected to begin in 2028. Calacanis, who recently bought small stakes in Lucid, Rivian, WeRide (WRD) and Pony.ai (PONY), expects consolidation in the autonomous-driving sector within 24 months.
- Prediction: Oct. 21 Will Be a Huge Day for the Stock Market
The article predicts October 21 could be a pivotal day for the stock market, as Meta Platforms (META) becomes the first of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants to report third-quarter earnings after the close. In its latest quarter, Meta's total revenue rose 28% to $60 billion, with ad revenue at $59 billion. Investors will be watching whether its capital spending, now about 35% of revenue, is translating into growth. Meta's report could hint at the earnings outlook for other tech giants and set the direction for the S&P 500 in the coming days, with the first trading session after the report on Thursday.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.