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- Happy 4th birthday to the S&P 500's bull market!
Hosts of The 8:30 review the four years since the S&P 500 bull market's October 12, 2022 low. Over that span the index is up 118% and the Nasdaq about 163%, with the Dow rising less; according to Barons, the average bull market lasts about eight years, so this one is roughly halfway. Market value has risen from roughly 30 trillion in 2022 to roughly 70 trillion today, largely driven by tech. JP Morgan's Michael Sandblest notes that since January 2024, AI stocks have produced 67% of S&P 500 returns, 58% of earnings growth and 81% of CapEx and R&D, making breadth across other sectors a key test as Q3 earnings arrive.
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- Exxon Wants to Repeat Its Guyana Success in Trinidad. Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait for the First Well?
ExxonMobil (XOM) is looking for its next major offshore oil discovery, and Trinidad and Tobago could be where it finds one. Its TTUD-1 exploration block covers about 7,165 square kilometers near Guyana, where Exxon and partners have found roughly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Exxon sees Trinidad as a geological extension of Guyana, with a first drilling location expected by mid-2027 and an initial well potentially in late 2027 or early 2028, though there is no guarantee of comparable resources. In Q2 2026, Exxon reported $14.5 billion in earnings, $17.2 billion in free cash flow and $9.4 billion returned to shareholders, while Permian output hit a record 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. The author argues the existing business supports the investment case, so a Trinidad result would be an added benefit rather than the deciding factor.
- Jim Cramer Calls CoreWeave the "Real Deal," but the Stock Crashed 15% the Very Next Day. Should You Buy the Dip?
Jim Cramer called CoreWeave (CRWV) the “real deal” on Mad Money, but the stock fell about 15% less than 24 hours later, on Oct. 14. The immediate catalyst was an essay by Chamath Palihapitiya noting that CoreWeave’s $1.25 billion bond due 2032 briefly yielded 15% in the secondary market, versus 9.6% at issue in June. Investors are worried about debt, which stood at about $35.1 billion at the end of Q2 2026, or $51.6 billion including leases. In the first half of 2026, operating cash flow was about $3.7 billion against $6.2 billion in principal and interest payments, and consensus expects negative free cash flow of $25 billion in 2026. The author considers the stock too speculative for most long-term investors and would not rush to buy the dip.
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- Financial System Report (October 2026)
The Bank of Japan's October 2026 Financial System Report assesses that the system remains broadly stable: banks have enough capital and stable funding to withstand a global financial crisis-level stress or a compound shock of higher oil prices, weaker AI expectations and a sharp rise in interest rates. Close monitoring is warranted for the Middle East, the profitability and financing of AI investment, and foreign non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs). Stock prices remain above trend, though P/E ratios are broadly around their average levels since 2008 as expected earnings rise. Longer term, declining loan demand from population decline could weaken bank profits and loss-absorbing capacity, raising the risk of either contraction or overheating in lending. The report also examines the effects of energy and raw material prices and rate hikes on SMEs and households, and cybersecurity threats from frontier AI.
- If the AI Bubble Bursts, These Stocks Will Be Winners
AI-linked stocks fell again: CoreWeave dropped to its lowest level since shortly after its IPO as its bond yields reached as high as 15%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% on Thursday, and Meta tumbled 7% despite strong earnings after posting its first quarter of negative free cash flow in its history amid surging AI infrastructure spending. The 10-year yield fell 3.8% to 4.95%, its first time below 5% in a month, and is down 7% over two weeks, which may reflect a shift from stocks into bonds. Homebuilder stocks rose, with the State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) up 3.8%, and Pool Corporation, RH, and Lennar gaining 14.4%, 9.5%, and 9%. Investors now see a 93% chance the Fed holds rates at 375-400 basis points, after weak September jobs growth and cooler-than-expected August PCE inflation. The author sees this as another sign that investors are looking for the next set of winners after AI.
- Alkane Resources - Quarterly Report - September 2026
Alkane Resources' quarterly report for the September 2026 quarter (Q1 FY27) shows gold-equivalent production of 40,740 AuEq oz at an AISC of $2,805/AuEq oz, with mine operating cash flow of $102 million and gold-equivalent sales of 38,348 oz generating $206 million in revenue at an average gold price of $5,128/oz. The company reaffirmed FY27 production guidance of 163-177koz gold equivalent at an AISC of $2,900-$3,200 per ounce. Cash, bullion and listed investments totalled $459 million after $13 million in income tax payments, with final FY26 income tax payments of $55-60 million expected in the December quarter. Alkane paid its maiden fully franked dividend of 2 cents per share and approved a $50 million buyback in September 2026. CEO Nic Earner said AISC came in below the full-year cost guidance range.
- SSI forecasts when PNJ's profit will return to the VND 1,000 billion mark
SSI forecasts PNJ's net revenue at VND 39,100 billion in 2026, VND 43,400 billion in 2027 and VND 57,700 billion in 2029, while after-tax profit is forecast at minus VND 6,300 billion in 2026, rising to VND 1,200 billion in 2028. The company holds large inventory, with diamonds making up 52%, and may need to set aside additional provisions for inventory write-downs if gold prices fall. Under SSI's estimated scenario, PNJ's additional repurchase obligation could be about VND 16,800 billion; to ease short-term liquidity pressure, the company plans to issue up to 550 million shares to raise VND 8,000 billion. Preliminary Q3/2026 results show a net loss of VND 258 billion, compared with a profit of VND 496 billion a year earlier. SSI continues to keep PNJ's stock at “Under review”.
- Ethereum delays Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet launch over security risks
Ethereum has postponed the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi testnet, originally scheduled for Oct. 26, so developers can examine how EIP-8037 and EIP-8038 interact with deployed smart contracts. ChainSecurity warned that the two proposals could weaken safeguards against insufficient gas griefing, potentially letting contracts permanently record failed operations and blocking otherwise valid user actions. The firm said it identified 13 real-world examples of potentially affected contracts and is coordinating responsible disclosure with the projects involved, without naming them. Security researcher pcaversaccio called the risks “serious” in an Oct. 21 GitHub comment and urged a reassessment of the hard fork. The mainnet timeline, which developers had been considering for early December, is now uncertain.
- Proposed 0.2% tax on idle land and land left unused or slow to be put to use
On the morning of October 23, the National Assembly heard the government's proposal and the review report on draft amendments to several tax laws, including the Law on Non-Agricultural Land Use Tax. The government proposes a 0.2% tax rate, with no area limit, for idle land and land that is not or is slowly being put to use, to institutionalize Resolution 21-NQ/TW. The Economic and Financial Committee agrees in principle but says the proposal conflicts with the current law, which applies 0.15% to unused land, and with the draft amended Land Law. It warns of possible double financial obligations for investment projects that leave land unused or slow to use it, and asks the drafting agency to clarify the basis, timeline and relationship with land use fees and land rental payments.
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