Cameco (CCJ) shares are down nearly 26% over the past six months and 36% from their all-time high, even though uranium trades at prices rarely seen outside brief spikes. A weak second-quarter report drove the decline, with declines across all three segments, including uranium production falling to 3.9 million pounds due to spring road conditions and a temporary Cigar Lake suspension. Management nonetheless maintained full-year Westinghouse EBITDA guidance of $370 million to $430 million and uranium production guidance of 19.5 million to 21.5 million pounds, and raised its expected realized uranium price to CA$91 to CA$96 per pound. The author argues that 10.1 million pounds in the first six months and solid third-quarter results could restore confidence, while the upcoming Westinghouse IPO, in which Cameco holds 49%, could release value for shareholders.
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